Jerome Armstrong points out that the Libertarian Party will have a dynamic and potentially very attractive candidate for President this year in Aaron Russo. Their anti-war, anti-PATRIOT Act, anti-big government message ought to be compelling and may allow some disgruntled Republicans an opportunity to cast a protest vote. Luis thinks the effect will be more of a wash in his state of Colorado, but in my anecdotal experience, the libertarian types I know tend to vote more Republican than Democrat. Take that for what it's worth, which is to say, not all that much.

Here's a better question: Given that the Libertarian candidate is all but guaranteed to be on most states' ballots (unlike a certain other hopeful I could name - for the record, I agree with Oliver that his support in these polls is way overstated), will any major polling outfit include him in any of their survey questions? I'd love to know what, if any, effect his presence might have on the numbers. Imagine the reaction if Gallup or Zogby found that with Aaron Russo included, Bush winds up trailing in Arizona or Nevada. How likely is that? Well, we won't know until they ask, will we?