A fairly boilerplate treatment of the several close Senate races nationwide in today's Chron, along with some "independent polling" numbers that are sadly not included in the online edition. (Yes, that's our daily fishwrap for you.) Anyone who's a regular in the political end of the blogosphere is familiar with all of this, but there was one paragraph that jumped out of the page and whacked me across the nose:
The White House's own analysis of the Senate races this year identified Texas, Tennessee and North Carolina as states likely to elect new Democratic members. More problematic for Republicans this year, however, is the close race in Arkansas.
If these three states really do go Democratic (and frankly I'd be thrilled if any one of them did), I can't see the Dems losing control of the Senate. Wow.
UPDATE: From my archives, some early evidence that the national GOP was at least worried about Texas and Ron Kirk all along.
Posted by Charles Kuffner on October 13, 2002 to Election 2002I think TN has been in the "concerned" column for the GOP ever since Fred Thompson (who was a shoo-in for re-election if he ran) announced he was leaving the Senate. And while Lamar Alexander's name recognition is still relatively strong, I think Karl Rove and company remained concerned when he emerged from the primary because of what they feel is his "squishy moderate" track record. But there's been about a 10 point spread in the polls since the primary, so this one may be close to leaving the "concerned" column.
Posted by: Kevin Whited on October 14, 2002 6:53 AMI think TN has been in the "concerned" column for the GOP ever since Fred Thompson (who was a shoo-in for re-election if he ran) announced he was leaving the Senate. And while Lamar Alexander's name recognition is still relatively strong, I think Karl Rove and company remained concerned when he emerged from the primary because of what they feel is his "squishy moderate" track record. But there's been about a 10 point spread in the polls since the primary, so this one may be close to leaving the "concerned" column.
Posted by: Kevin Whited on October 14, 2002 6:54 AMPlease be kinder to fishwrap. Bach's widow used his music paper for fishwrap. Surely you would place Bach's music paper above the Houston Chronicle? I don't know where culture has gone these days. Sheesh.
I'd be amazed if Bob Clement won the Senate seat in TN. He's about as uninspiring as you can get, and Alexander was a quite good moderate Governor before he sold out to the dark side as part of his runs for the Presidency. Clement's even found himself on the wrong side of Social Security privatization. Guess all that pandering in preparation for a statewide run backfired.
Residual affection for Lamar! and the fact that no one outside of Middle TN has any clue who Clement is should keep this seat safe for the GOP.
The only exception is if an unexpected Democratic tidal wave sweeps all competitive races before it.
Posted by: William Burton on October 14, 2002 9:56 AMThe article misquotes Rove's leaked PowerPoint presentation. The presentation said that Dem wins in OR, TX, CO, TN, NC, and ME were POSSIBLE. That's a far cry from "likely". The presentation noted Dem had a "strong chance" of wins in NH and AR.
You can find the presentation here:
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/14rov.1.pdf
Posted by: Kos on October 14, 2002 10:49 AM