November 13, 2002
Hispanic voting

This AP article says Hispanics generally voted Democratic in 2002, but the GOP got a decent share of the votes in New York, Florida, and possibly Colorado. It's also a reminder that Hispanic voters are not monolithic - those of Mexican ancestry voted heavily for the Democrats, while Cuban-Americans and Puerto Ricans went more for the GOP.

The question of how Governor Goodhair did with Hispanics is still being argued:

In Texas, the Velasquez study showed Democratic candidate for governor Tony Sanchez with 87 percent of the Hispanic vote and Republican Gov. Rick Perry with 10 percent. Perry won the election by a 58-40 margin overall and Republicans say his share of the Hispanic vote was probably closer to a third, based on his performance in heavily Hispanic regions of the state.

Given how poorly Tony Sanchez did with Anglo voters and how disappointing Hispanic turnout was in the end, I'd tend towards the 87% number. I think if Perry had gotten one-third of the Hispanic votes he'd have won by a 2-1 margin instead of 3-2.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on November 13, 2002 to Election 2002 | TrackBack

More to the point, in Florida Bush got a majority of Hispanic votes in his reelection bid for Governor. Unlike his other famous brother, Jeb's Spanish is good and has a Mexican wife.

I think three states, California, Texas and Florida, well represent the different ranges of the Hispanic vote. Unlike the Black vote, Hispanics are difficult to appeal to en masse, and the very different outcomes in those states show that. In California, Hispanics are strongly Democratic; in Texas they are mildly Democratic; in Florida they are weakly Democratic.

Posted by: B. K. Oxley (binkley) on November 14, 2002 8:20 AM

PRs going GOP? How odd, I wouldn't have thought so; I'm a Newyorican who has never thought about Republicans as natural allies. OTOH, my mother tells me that many PRs identify with the GOP because Luis Munoz Marin was aligned with them, and she reminds me that my paternal grandfather was Republican. So maybe my mother, who's a New Deal Democrat from when the New Deal was new, may be the exception and not the rule.

Posted by: Chris Quinones on November 14, 2002 1:04 PM

Binkley - I agree, though I think even a 2-1 Dem vote for Texas Hispanics would qualify them as more than just "slightly" Dem.

Chris - It's my understanding that Pataki spoke out against the Navy's use of Vieques, which helped garner support for him. I agree, it seems odd, but then Pataki is not representative of the national GOP anyway.

Posted by: Charles Kuffner on November 14, 2002 1:11 PM

I'm willing to bet that Perry got at least a fifth of the Hispanic vote (maybe even a quarter), but a third is probably wishful thinking. The 10% figure seems quite a bit low, at least judging by pre-election polls.

Posted by: Owen Courrèges on November 14, 2002 1:45 PM

We won't have a good grasp until someone publishes some turnout numbers broken down by race. If the figures I saw immediately after the election - that Perry got over 70% of the Anglo vote - are true, then I think he had to get trounced by the nonwhite vote just to make the math work.

That said, if the number I just quoted is high, or if Hispanic turnout is higher than I think it was, then 20% of the vote for Perry is certainly possible. 25% is probably a bit much.

Either way, I still think that makes them a bit more than "slightly" Democratic. For now, anyway.

Posted by: Charles Kuffner on November 14, 2002 2:56 PM