Rasmussen does Texas

Jim D brings us (via Kos) the Rasmussen poll numbers for Texas:

May 1 - May 31
(Purported Margin of Error: +/- 3%)

Bush 55%
Kerry 38%
Other 3%
Not Sure 4%

Both Jim and Rasmussen note that Bush carried Texas by a 59-38 margin in 2000, though while Rasmussen calls this an "expected" result, Jim thinks Bush will hold at about 55% and predicts a 55-43 split this November.

I'm going to make a prediction of my own. If Jim is right and Bush beats Kerry here by 55-43, then I believe the Democrats will keep most, maybe even all, of their endangered incumbent Congressmen. If on the other hand it's more like 59-38 again, they'll be lucky to keep any one of them. Until I see some reliable polling on these individual races, I'm going to consider the statewide Presidential poll numbers as a proxy for them as a whole. Let's keep an eye on this.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on June 05, 2004 to The making of the President | TrackBack