July 31, 2004
The bounce

Poll time.


In interviews on Thursday, July 29-before the Kerry nomination acceptance speech-Kerry/Edwards received the support of 47 percent of registered voters, Bush/Cheney 45 percent and Nader/Camejo 2 percent, according to the Newsweek Poll. In Friday interviews after the speech, Kerry/Edwards received 50 percent, Bush/Cheney 40 percent and Nader/Camejo 3 percent. In the two-way race, in interviews on July 29, Kerry/Edwards received 49 percent and Bush/Cheney 47 percent. On July 30, Kerry/Edwards got 54 percent and Bush/Cheney 41 percent, the poll shows.

Reflecting the DNC's themes, 27 percent of registered voters say Kerry's war record makes them more likely to vote for him (15% say less likely); five percent say Bush's war record makes them more likely to vote for him (22% say less likely). And overall, 51 percent of registered voters say Bush has done more to divide Americans than unite them (39 percent say he has done more to unite them).


Not bad, not bad at all. No wonder Bush/Cheney is so negative. And here's my favorite part:

Looking at crossover voters from the 2000 election, 92 percent of Gore voters in 2000 support Kerry (5 percent say they will vote for Bush and 3 percent is undecided); 84 percent of Bush voters say they plan to vote for the president again (four percent of Bush 2000 voters are undecided, 10 percent say they will vote for Kerry and 2 percent for Nader).

Too bad they didn't check former Nader voters' preferences. Maybe they couldn't find enough people who admitted to voting for St. Ralph in 2000.

Zogby has more good news (via Atrios).

All in all, a good start. Oh, one more thing - the rating for Kerry's speech were up from Gore's.


More than 24.4 million people watched Sen. John Kerry deliver his acceptance speech Thursday night, 2.7 million more than watched Night 4 of the 2000 Democratic National Convention.

Contrary to speculation, the audience for the 2004 convention did not drop precipitously. According to Nielsen Media Research, the 2004 convention averaged 20.4 million viewers during peak viewing hours (9-10 p.m. each night), compared with 20.6 million viewers for the 2000 convention.

The Night 4 cable audience grew by 38 percent in 2004 vs. 2000, 6.7 million viewers vs. 4.2 million.

CNN grabbed the most cable viewers, while NBC eked out a win among broadcasters. Numbers are not available for C-SPAN, which is not advertiser-supported and does not subscribe to the Nielsen rating service.


Sweet.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on July 31, 2004 to The making of the President | TrackBack
Comments

What bounce?

from : http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-08-01-poll-kerry_x.htm

Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention
By Susan Page, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON The Democratic National Convention boosted voters' perceptions of John Kerry's leadership on critical issues, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds. But it failed to give him the expected bump in the head-to-head race against President Bush.

In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards trailed the Republican ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney 50% to 46% among likely voters, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2%.

Before the convention, the two were essentially tied, with Kerry at 47%, Bush at 46%.

The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless a stunning result, the first time in the Gallup Poll since the 1972 Democratic convention that a candidate seemed to lose ground at his convention.

USA TODAY extended its survey Sunday night and tonight to get a fuller picture of what's happening with the electorate.

A Newsweek survey taken Thursday and Friday showed the Democrats with a lead of 49% to 42%, a four-point bounce compared with a poll taken three weeks earlier the smallest in the history of the Newsweek poll.

Analysts say the lack of a boost for Kerry may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say in the survey that they are confident they won't change their mind between now and the Nov. 2 election. That leaves little room for a candidate to gain support even when major events occur.

Posted by: Gary C. on August 1, 2004 3:42 PM

Yeah where did you get that article...? Gallup shows the opposite -- Kerry actually went DOWN a bit after the convention (the only time that's ever happened, ever -- in fact, you have to go back to 1972 and McGovern before you even find a candidate that didn't go up!) Newsweek only had a four point bounce but that was over three weeks and not as accurate as USA/CNN/Gallup. Bush actually gained ground, too, gaining four points after Kerry's speech.

Where'd that article come from, the DNC? *laugh* Every reputable paper is reporting either no bounce, or Kerry going down.

Posted by: Jacob on August 2, 2004 12:08 AM