October 30, 2004
Burnt Orange, Greg Wythe, and George Strong all have some Election Day predictions. I'm not going to go there, for the simple reason that it's never a good idea to bet with your heart and not your head. Anything I wrote down here would be a reflection of what I'm hoping for, not what I really and objectively think will happen. Since you already more or less know what I want to happen, I won't bother repeating myself.
That said, there are a few things that I'll go out on a limb for:
1. The race that I think will surprise everyone is CD07. I'm not saying that John Martinez is going to win, or even come particularly close, because he won't. What I do think, though, is that he'll outperform the Democratic index of the district, which is 30% according to the Populations and Elections report for PlanC01374 (go here, click on PlanC01374, then click the Population and Elections button to see the report in PDF format). I'm basing this on the large number of Martinez signs that I see in the parts of CD07 I tend to frequent, which is to say Montrose and the Rice/Medical Center areas. For a candidate with no funds, no media coverage, and no name recognition, there are a lot of signs touting his campaign. I think the people in this part of the district, who used to be in CD18 and CD25, will vote heavily for him, and that by doing so, he'll get somewhere between 35 and 40% of the total vote. This is as much wishful thinking as anything else I could write here, since I want very much for a good result by Martinez to spur a bigger and better candidate into challenging John Culberson in 2006, but I'll go on the record with it anyway.
2. I believe at least one Harris County Democrat will win a countywide race. I'm not sure who it will be - maybe Reggie McKamie, maybe Kathy Stone, maybe Bruce Mosier - but I think at least one of them will. This will hopefully prod more Democrats to challenge Republican judicial incumbents in 2006.
3. Travis County will go for Kerry by a wide margin, something like 57-42. (In 2000, Gore+Nader was about 52%, with Bush getting just under 47%.) I believe there will be no more than a four point difference between Bush and Kerry in all three of Harris, Dallas, and Bexar Counties, and I believe Kerry will carry at least one of them by a smidgen. (This is not such a big stretch. The 2000 totals: In Bexar, Bush 52.24%, Gore+Nader 47.23%; in Dallas, Bush 52.58%, Gore+Nader 46.80%; in Harris, Bush 54.28%, Gore+Nader 45.25%.) I believe Kerry will get at least 42% of the vote statewide (2000 total: Bush 59.39%, Gore+Nader 40.13%).
Feel free to make whatever predictions you want to make here.
Posted by Charles Kuffner on October 30, 2004 to Election 2004
Take this for what it is worth - since 1972 six states have served as 'bellweathers' selecting the winner of the presidential contest each time -KY, TN, AR, MO, OH and LA. Current polling data has Bush leading in 5, with OH still a toss-up.
As for Martinez, I think Culberson is going to crush him but I certain hope he gets enough votes to get Culberson's attention. "Freeway John" as my father-in-law calls him needs to pay much better attention to his constituents. He takes his position for granted and could use a little correction in priorites.
I think you're wrong- Travis county is going to go much stronger for Kerry- I'd think the vote totals may go well above 60%- people are that mad here. Democratic student organizations here registered thousands of voters, all of them Kerry supporters.
And it's going to be a lot closer in the other three counties you mentioned as well. My friends in Dallas report an enorous number of Kerry signs in predominantly republican enclaves. Bush will carry Texas, but not by much.
Four, polls have consistently shown Kerry down 20+% in Texas. I'd guess around 58-40 on election night.
"Democratic student organizations here registered thousands of voters, all of them Kerry supporters."
Really? I'd respectfully point out that just because a person is registered by a Democratic student organization, it does not always follow that they will vote for the Democrat. More importantly, it doesn't neccessarily mean they will vote at all.
Take this for what it is worth - since 1972 six states have served as 'bellweathers' selecting the winner of the presidential contest each time -KY, TN, AR, MO, OH and LA.
Sounds impressive, until you realize that only two of those elections ('76 and '00) were close. Except Ohio, these states are all Southern or border states and therefore lean GOP; however, that bias was cancelled in '76 by the fact that Carter was Southern. Of course they went with Reagan in '80, but that was a landslide.
Clinton and Gore were also Southerners, but in '94 the Southern states realigned to become more solidly GOP, so (again excepting Ohio) the fact they all went with the "winner" in '00 isn't that surprising either.
For '04, AR is a lot closer than you think, but the smart money would be on Ohio to remain the "bellwether." On 'Kos I predicted Kerry will eke out a 1% victory in the popular vote, but I'm less certain of that than I am that whoever wins Ohio will win the Presidency.
Again, that bit of data was more trivial oddity than lead pipe cinch.
But I will point out one thing that just doesn't jibe...Tennessee in 2000. The fact that Clinton and Gore could pull Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee might be explained by a Southern bias. It certainly worked for Carter in 1976. But Gore losing Tennessee shows that in some situations the voters will opt for more than just the guy from the closer state.
I've seen John Martinez signs everywhere I've been in SW and West Houston, and not a single Culberson sign anywhere. I've talked to hardcore republicans who plan on voting for Martinez. He probably won't win, but it'll be close
Jon, for Culberson signs, cruise down Memorial west of the Beltway and drive around the neighborhoods along Wilcrest and Kirkwood. There are tons of Culberson signs and they seem to be recent. I hadn't seen any until this weekend and now there a bunches of them.
I'm a roadkill Republican and I live in the area just on the other side of the Beltway and I guess they ran out of signs before they got to my neighborhood. It is bereft of Culberson signs, but not votes. He'll get lots of them...but not mine.