February 15, 2005
Van Os versus Kerry

Via Sam Heldman, I see this assertion from David Van Os:


I carried 17 rural counties that Kerry-Edwards lost, and ran ahead of the ticket statewide and in every region.

Well, hey, there's nothing like digging into election return data for some good clean fun, so off to the Secretary of State webpage I went. First things first, I'm not sure where Van Os got that 17 county figure from. By my count, he carried 10 counties that Kerry did not:

Brister Van Os Total
County REP DEM Brister Pct Van Os Pct Votes
BEE 4,185 4,517 48.09% 51.91% 8,702
CAMERON 26,570 35,765 42.62% 57.38% 62,335
CULBERSON 289 316 47.77% 52.23% 605
FISHER 808 831 49.30% 50.70% 1,639
FRIO 1,482 1,957 43.09% 56.91% 3,439
KLEBERG 4,085 5,000 44.96% 55.04% 9,085
MORRIS 2,266 2,618 46.40% 53.60% 4,884
NEWTON 2,335 2,751 45.91% 54.09% 5,086
REEVES 1,217 1,690 41.86% 58.14% 2,907
ROBERTSON 3,086 3,174 49.30% 50.70% 6,260

Bush Kerry Total
County REP DEM Bush Pct Kerry Pct Votes
BEE 5,428 4,045 57.03% 42.50% 9,518
CAMERON 34,801 33,998 50.32% 49.16% 69,156
CULBERSON 407 375 51.65% 47.59% 788
FISHER 1,161 758 60.37% 39.42% 1,923
FRIO 1,991 1,931 50.66% 49.13% 3,930
KLEBERG 5,366 4,550 53.81% 45.62% 9,973
MORRIS 2,818 2,437 53.39% 46.17% 5,278
NEWTON 3,159 2,513 55.42% 44.09% 5,700
REEVES 1,777 1,600 52.34% 47.13% 3,395
ROBERTSON 3,792 2,979 55.81% 43.84% 6,795


(Note: Bush/Kerry percentages do not sum to 100 because of other candidates on the ballot.)

Pretty impressive, but not the whole story. To see what I mean, consider the results in those counties in the Railroad Commissioner race between Democrat Bob Scarborough and Republican incumbent Victor Carillo:


Carillo Scarborough Total
County REP DEM Carillo Pct Scarborough Pct Votes
BEE 3,601 4,891 40.60% 55.14% 8,870
CAMERON 26,457 32,366 41.37% 50.61% 63,948
CULBERSON 297 326 44.93% 49.32% 661
FISHER 841 927 47.22% 52.05% 1,781
FRIO 1,284 2,103 36.05% 59.04% 3,562
KLEBERG 3,811 5,033 40.57% 53.58% 9,393
MORRIS 1,925 2,942 38.75% 59.22% 4,968
NEWTON 1,886 3,174 36.30% 61.09% 5,196
REEVES 1,222 1,595 39.97% 52.18% 3,057
ROBERTSON 2,846 3,372 44.45% 52.67% 6,402

There was a Libertarian in this race, Anthony Garcia, who drew some sizeable support in a few counties (as you can tell by the percentage totals), yet despite his presence Scarborough did better than Van Os in all but Cameron (where Garcia drew over 5000 votes) and Reeves.

There's more. Scarborough carried a lot more counties that were not carried by Van Os. I've reproduced those totals, including Garcia's but without the percentages, beneath the More link.

My point here is not to bash David Van Os. I voted for him, and I agree with his argument that Democrats need to deliver their message aggressively and forcefully, and they must not be afraid to deliver it in places that aren't traditionally friendly. Kerry's campaign was understandably not present here, and the result speaks for itself. The point I am making, though, is that the right person has to deliver that message as well, and while I admire his fighting spirit, that person most likely isn't David Van Os.

All counties carried by Bob Scarborough (BS) and not carried by David Van Os.


County REP DEM LIB VC Pct BS Pct Votes
BASTROP 10,147 10,835 1,269 45.60% 48.69% 22,251
BREWSTER 1,601 1,673 165 46.55% 48.65% 3,439
CALDWELL 4,781 5,684 576 43.30% 51.48% 11,041
CALHOUN 3,026 3,171 264 46.83% 49.08% 6,461
CAMP 1,945 2,103 67 47.27% 51.11% 4,115
CASS 5,300 5,646 261 47.29% 50.38% 11,207
COTTLE 274 328 18 44.19% 52.90% 620
FALLS 2,372 2,680 134 45.74% 51.68% 5,186
FOARD 224 274 17 43.50% 53.20% 515
GOLIAD 1,486 1,518 144 47.20% 48.22% 3,148
JASPER 5,756 6,037 266 47.73% 50.06% 12,059
KARNES 1,860 2,257 200 43.09% 52.28% 4,317
KENT 185 236 13 42.63% 54.38% 434
MARION 1,798 2,102 84 45.13% 52.76% 3,984
MILAM 3,807 4,210 202 46.32% 51.22% 8,219
NUECES 46,178 47,307 5,091 46.85% 47.99% 98,576
ORANGE 14,572 14,977 737 48.11% 49.45% 30,286
RED RIVER 2,293 2,426 104 47.54% 50.30% 4,823
REFUGIO 1,266 1,546 182 42.28% 51.64% 2,994
SAN AUGUSTINE 1,417 1,907 90 41.51% 55.86% 3,414
STONEWALL 286 363 13 43.20% 54.83% 662
SWISHER 984 991 42 48.79% 49.13% 2,017
TRINITY 2,753 2,754 152 48.65% 48.67% 5,659
TYLER 3,361 3,461 206 47.82% 49.25% 7,028
UVALDE 3,633 3,747 472 46.27% 47.72% 7,852

Posted by Charles Kuffner on February 15, 2005 to Election 2004 | TrackBack
Comments

An enlightening analysis. Great work.

I also admire David Van Os' fighting spirit, but his "I'm a victim" routine long ago grew tiresome. His loose grip on the facts doesn't help his credibility, either.

David is too filled with anger, too intolerant of other points of view and too resentful of anyone who fails to fall in line behind him. He reminds me of George W. Bush and the neo-cons. And his constant railing against "Democratic consultants" or "self-appointed spokesmen" is not just off-base, it's counter-productive.

I know your intention wasn't to bash Van Os but thanks for setting the record straight.

Posted by: Oh, Sarah! on February 16, 2005 8:07 AM

Let's see....David Van Os lost by 1,276,154 votes. That's more than the 707,904 votes he lost by the FIRST time he ran. How ridiculous can these convsersations get? The man had his ASS handed to him (Scarborough too for that matter). So does it really matter which 10 or 25 or 15 counties he carried? Texas has 254 of them. So let's all get a little real around here. Put it in perspective PLEASE!

Posted by: Tammy O on February 16, 2005 9:48 PM

Did you vote for Mr. Van Os or against Justice Brister? Or was it the consequence of a straight-ticket vote?

There are some very, very fine Democratic lawyers in Texas who have the credentials and experience to compete effectively. I could name ten off the top of my head without cracking a legal directory. But in my personal opinion, Mr. Van Os -- who had no prior judicial experience at any level, a mediocre academic record, and an undistinguished record as a practicing lawyer -- was a vastly inferior candidate to either Justice Brister or dozens of others the Democratic Party could have run. Did Mr. Van Os have anything to commend him as a candidate other than his past activism for the Democratic Party? And is that a sufficient reason to vote for a judge?

Just curious, if you'd care to elaborate. If not, I will of course respect your privacy.

Posted by: Beldar on February 18, 2005 10:26 PM