May 03, 2005
New DeLay poll

So there's another poll of CD22 which shows Tom DeLay's approval numbers are in the drink:

SurveyUSA asked 548 registered voters in the 22nd congressional district several questions about the embattled republican's performance.

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Tom DeLay is doing as Congressman?
51 percent disapproved
42 percent approved
7 percent were not sure

What letter grade would you give Tom DeLay for his job as congressman? An A, B, C, D, or an F?
A: 23 percent
B: 19 percent
C: 18 percent
D: 16 percent
F: 22 percent
Not Sure: 1 percent

Based on what you know right now, do you think Tom DeLay should remain in his position as House Majority Leader, he should resign as House Majority Leader but remain a member of Congress, or do you think he should completely resign from Congress?
39 percent: Remain House Majority Leader
21 percent: Resign Leadership
36 percent: Resign From Congress
4 percent: Not Sure

The poll had a margin of error of 4.3 percent, pollsters said.

It's true, as blogHOUSTON points out, that we don't have the internals of this survey, so we can't say for sure that Democrats haven't been oversampled. But it's also true that these are not the first or only bad poll numbers we've seen for DeLay lately. That Zogby survey showed that 78% of Republicans voted for DeLay in 2004, and 63% would vote for him again, which (let's face it) is not exactly rock-solid in his favor - in fact, if this is a 60% Republican district (which is about right, based on the overall vote), then 63% of that is less than 38% total. If that's true, he's in trouble - I mean, how many Democrats do you expect to push the button for DeLay? (Answer: If 78% of 60% voted for DeLay in 2004 (which comes to 46.8%), then about 21% of the remaining 40% (total of 8.4%) did as well to get his overall total to 55.2%. That would not be enough to push him over the hump if his GOP support is as low as Zogby says, and that's without taking into account the possibility that that support level is lower, too.) This poll is clearly worse for The Hammer than the Zogby one was, but not so much so that it's an obvious outlier.

I think the question is whether the drumbeat against DeLay will continue. Now that the Ethics Committee, with its roster of DeLay toadies, is back in business, will they take action against him? Even if they try, will they be hamstrung by the FBI investigation into DeLay cronies Abramoff and Scanlon? If DeLay is no longer a regular news item, or if the Ethics Committee finds a way to clear him for his lobbyist-paid travel, will constituents who may be giving negative answers to pollsters now forgive and forget? Or is he damaged goods forever? These polls are nice now, but they'd be much nicer in another 16 or 17 months.

UPDATE: Time Magazine has a poll which claims DeLay's name recognition countrywide is at 77% (via The Stakeholder). He's also now regular fodder for political cartoonists. Keep up the good work, Tom!

Posted by Charles Kuffner on May 03, 2005 to Scandalized! | TrackBack

So far as I can tell, it's not a Time poll, but a poll by Dem Stan Greenberg mentioned by Time.

Has anyone tracked down the actual Greenberg poll?

Posted by: kevin whited on May 3, 2005 2:37 PM

but for polls to match a provable vote...


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