John Judis has a piece on Tom DeLay that's worth reading. It's probably the first piece in a national publication that analyzes DeLay's current situation in a non-surface fashion. One correction that needs to be made:
[W]hile many of the engineers, scientists, and managers who live in Sugar Land, Kingwood, and Clear Lake are registered Republicans, they aren't party activists.
This is what I mean by non-surface analysis. Judis doesn't accept the DeLay spin about selflessly making CD22 more Democratic so as to help his comrades - he actually looks at the numbers.
Morrison held DeLay to only 55 percent--his lowest total ever--while garnering 41 percent himself. Republican officials insist that Morrison got the baseline vote that any Democrat running against DeLay would get in the new 2004 district. "I would run my dog and he would get that much," Thode says. But, in 2002, DeLay defeated Democrat Tom Riley by 60 to 38 percent in the Fort Bend County part of the district. DeLay potentially strengthened his hand in that county after 2002 by moving 45,000 black voters to Al Green's majority black 9th district in Houston. But he did much worse--winning only 53 to 42 percent--in 2004. Morrison didn't get a baseline vote in November 2004. He captured part of what could have been a much larger disaffected vote, prompted by the growing unease of the region's professionals with DeLay's performance in Congress.
Link via Ruy Teixeira.
UPDATE: Forgot to link to this WaPo piece, which doesn't actually have anything to do with what Judis writes about but which calls DeLay "increasingly embattled" in the headline. I just like the sound of that. Via Political Wire.Posted by Charles Kuffner on May 09, 2005 to Election 2006 | TrackBack