August 25, 2005
Is there an effect in these poll numbers?

A few days ago Daily KOS pointed to the monthly SurveyUSA Senate approval numbers, which among other things showed a slight downward trend for Kay Bailey Hutchison.

The campaign for Barbara Radnofsky jumped on those numbers, pointing out that Hutchison has recently flipflopped on several issues that Radnofsky has been highlighting, and that Hutchison has done more for the people of Alaska on transportation funding than she has for the people of Texas. Stina and John have the communication from Radnofsky's campaign.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that Radnofsky's campaign and Hutchison's recent adoption of some of Radnofsky's platform is responsible for the polling dip, however - I think John's analysis, which points to the attacks KBH came under from Rick Perry prior to her announcement that she wasn't running for Governor, is spot on. I say that not because I think BAR's campaigning has been without effect - it's not a coincidence that KBH has suddenly changed her tune on these items - but because the fact of KBH's abrupt embrace of her opponent's positions isn't getting reported. Hutchison may be a KayBee-come-lately on the issue of VA hospitals, for example, but she still gets full credit for it when she comes around. Which is a shame, but that's life.

There are some positive signs. Blogs, of course, pick up on this sort of thing - it is what we do, after all. There's starting to be some coverage of BAR in the regular press, at least when she visits places like El Paso and Lubbock. Not quite as compelling, perhaps, as this breathless tale of KBH's selfless sacrifice of her daily fitness regimen, but they'll do for now.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on August 25, 2005 to Election 2006 | TrackBack

In Dallas she is in favor of keeping the Wright Amendment, which restricts traffic at Love Field. The Wright amendment is anti-competitive and helps subsidize American Airlines, so her standing has dropped in my view.

Posted by: MaxConcrete on August 25, 2005 12:10 PM

The "downward trend" from the last month is within the margin of error. I'd be hesitant to characterize it as a downward trend at this point, although one would expect the numbers to close a bit if Radnofsky can do any significant advertising.

Posted by: kevin whited on August 25, 2005 1:12 PM

Yes, but the two-month difference is seven points, so the overlap between the two confidence intervals is pretty small, and the probability that August's approval number is genuinely lower than June's is likely in the 95%+ range. I agree that as trends go, this one is still in its infancy, but I don't believe it's nothing.

Posted by: Charles Kuffner on August 25, 2005 1:30 PM

I guess it's something if you are pro Radnofsky.

Otherwise there's really not a WHOLE lot there, still, Kay Bailey has lost some conservative support of late.

Posted by: Sedosi on August 25, 2005 9:23 PM

Did you see the comment in my blog regarding the press release that the BAR campaign put out? It was from an out-of-state Texan with a journalism background who is politically aware but just hasn't been able to keep up too much with the details of this particular campaign. He found the BAR press release to be downright awful.

Posted by: 'stina on August 26, 2005 11:54 AM