October 30, 2005
Zogby fills in the blanks

Following up on my post about the Zogby Interactive poll from last month, we now have a full report of all the matchups they surveyed, which fills in a couple of blanks from the report they made available to the Wall Street Journal Online. Two items in particular of note, starting with this one:


Perry* (R) 40%
Bell (D) 27%
Friedman (I) 18%

Perry* (R) 41%
Sharp (D) 26%
Friedman (I) 19%

Strayhorn (R) 35%
Bell (D) 26%
Friedman (I) 17%

Strayhorn (R) 32%
Sharp (D) 26%
Friedman (I) 18%

I believe this ought to put the final nail in the idea that only John Sharp could take out Rick Perry. Not that it matters, since Sharp now has other things on his plate, but as of last month at least, he was polling slightly worse than Chris Bell in this matchup. He does do a little better than Bell against Comptroller Strayhorn, but only because Strayhorn's numbers dip slightly.

What this says to me is either that Sharp's name ID isn't appreciably better than Bell's, or that being known to more people isn't the asset for Sharp that one might have thought it would be. Whatever the case may be, I say it's time to stop wasting time on what isn't going to happen - and that includes the current wishcasting of Bill White announcing for Governor five minutes into his inaugural address as a second-term Mayor - and start focusing on what is. Rick Perry is polling at 40% of the vote, which is less than his combined opposition. This is a winnable race if Democrats can pull themselves together. It's time to get going on that.

Item two is from the Senate race, where the published reports were all about various fantasy football matchups. Here's how the real race compares to them:

Hutchison* (R) 52%
Radnofsky (D) 34%

Hutchison* (R) 50%
Kirk (D) 37%

Hutchison* (R) 51%
Sharp (D) 36%

Hutchison* (R) 52%
Watson (D) 36%

Barbara Radnofsky fares a little worse than the others against KBH, but not by much. All things considered, it's about what I'd expect. She's obviously got a lot of ground to make up, and she'll have to chip away some of KBH's current support, something which may be made easier by Hutchison herself and her recent penchant for stupid statements. That said, given KBH's status as the Great Exalted Popular Moderate, I'm not displeased with her topping out at 52%. It's still a mountain to climb, but at least it's not K2.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on October 30, 2005 to Election 2006 | TrackBack

This poll is about as scientific as a Survey USA gimmick.

The true numbers (as of a month ago) are: Perry 62%-Strayhorn 26% in the GOP primary; Perry 45%-Sharp 41% in a general election matchup; and Sharp 32% - Alvarado 13%- Bell 11% in the Democratic primary.

You are right that Sharp isn't running and that Democrats should focus on reality. You are also right that Perry is incredibly vulnerable to a credible, well-funded candidate -- which means Democrats have exactly two months to come up with one or cede the election to one of the weakest Governors in modern history.

Posted by: sheila on October 31, 2005 7:53 AM