Via Kirk at BOR, two Democrats are preparing to challenge Rep. Pete Sessions in CD32: Dallas lawyer Will Pryor and 2002 candidate Pauline Dixon. This is of course a good thing, as the goal is to run everywhere. CD32 is one of the less red districts among those designed to elect a Republican - it was drawn with a 60.3% GOP index; only CD21 is that purple, with CD02 slightly more crimson.
The bad news, of course, is that although he beat the spread by five points, then-incumbent Martin Frost couldn't win there last year. A challenge by a relative unknown, who's sure to have much less money, is highly unlikely to do any better than that. On the other hand, my analysis of CD32 suggests that it underperformed slightly from a GOP perspective - the overall partisan split was 59.1%/40.9%, or 59.8%/40.2% if you remove the Frost-Sessions race. Frost outdid every other Democrat in this district, with the exception of Katy Hubener in HD106, who beat him by a half point in the precincts they shared. The second best performance in CD32 was by Lupe Valdez, who scored 42.2% there.
Dallas County is clearly trending Democrat, and because of that CD32 is going to get more competitive each cycle. Getting candidates in all available races, which the Dallas County Democratic Party seems to be on its way to doing, will help. The one race that's still unchallenged is the one where the Democrat did worse than John Kerry, in HD108 against Dan Branch. There's room to grow here, and while this race may not attract as much attention as some others this year, it's going to be top-tier again. If Pryor or Dixon can match or exceed Frost's percentage, look out in 2008.Posted by Charles Kuffner on November 22, 2005 to Election 2006 | TrackBack