500 Likely voters; MoE 4.5%, pollster Scott Rasmussen; conducted February 6th.
Rick Perry 40%
Carole Strayhorn 31%
Chris Bell 13%
Kinky Friedman 9%
Rick Perry 38%
Carole Strayhorn 29%
Bob Gammage 18%
Kinky Friedman 8%
Perry 53%/45% Favorable/Unfavorable
Strayhorn 55%/31% Favorable/Unfavorable
Bell 33%/36% Favorable/Unfavorable
Gammage 27%/43% Favorable/Unfavorable
Friedman 28%/40% Favorable/Unfavorable
Even without that concern, it's a little hard for me to believe that somewhere between one half and two thirds of the state's Democrats (if you use the Royal Masset 50R-35D-15I formula) would vote for a non-Democrat in November. I don't doubt that both Strayhorn and Friedman are taking support from Dems as they are from GOPers. I just don't think it's that much.
I could be wrong, of course. The thing about this race is that we have nothing to compare it to, so everything is guesswork and wishful thinking. We may all wind up looking like idiots in November.
I think PvsW is right in that the Dem nominee is going to have to go after Strayhorn to have a chance at winning. I can't see Perry slipping much lower than 40%, though I suppose another special session meltdown or two might hurt him. Strayhorn and Bell/Gammage together can beat Perry, but I don't think all of Strayhorn's support is transferable to the Dem, and vice versa. That said, even I will have to consider my options if a string of polls in October show Strayhorn neck and neck with Perry, while the Dem lags behind. I don't like the thought of that, and at this point I don't believe it will come to that, but I don't doubt for a minute that this is what's driving some of the Rasmussen dynamics right now.
Will prolonged exposure to Strayhorn make her more or less appealing to Democrats? Will she, as PvsW suspects, tack left to increase that appeal to them, and will that cost her support with other voters? Hell if I know. I still want to see more polling, and I want to know what assumptions the pollsters are making about the partisan mix. It's all still noise until then.
Last thought: 40% unfavorable for Friedman? That's way high. I seriously doubt that he and Bell and Gammage have enough name ID to have the levels of fav and unfav that this poll says they do.Posted by Charles Kuffner on February 15, 2006 to Election 2006 | TrackBack