March 07, 2006
Demo Incognito v. The Mighty Slime Machine

Karl-Thomas directs us to red hot polling numbers from SUSA which indicate that more than 60 percent of Texans are unfamiliar with both Chris Bell and Bob Gammage. Only four percent are unfamiliar with Rick Perry. The margin of error is about 5 percent.

Because Perry's numbers are net-positive but still generally craptacular (44 percent positive, 37 negative), and because both Bell and Gammage have basically failed to introduce themselves to Texans thusfar, I would predict with 100 percent confidence that El Gobernador would go negative tommorrow on the winner of today's Democratic primary... if it were a two-party election. Rather, I suspect that the Carole-Rick funfest will continue, since Strayhorn is almost as well known as Perry and a fair bit more popular (among those who are familiar with them, Strayhorn is at about 49 positive and Perry is around 45 positive). The Kinkster actually registered a net-negative favorability rating of 26 positive/27 negative/21 neutral/26 unfamiliar. This may be a good time for Kinky Friedman to go back to writing mystery novels.

I guess we'll see tomorrow where the Perry camp is going to go with this. My best guess is that they're going to focus on knocking out Carole, hope Kinky fades into oblivion, and then fling mud fast and furious at the yet-to-be-named Democrat in the fall. I would encourage each and everyone of you to cut a check for whoever wins tonight (if it doesn't go to a runoff), because we all know it's coming.

P.S., I keep getting e-mail spam from the Perry campaign. Am I alone in wondering why?

UPDATE: At least publicly, Perry's pollster is saying something quite different. Personally, I think Baselice is overestimatin the percentage of voters who are Republicans (I think it's more like 40-30-30), although perhaps if by 50-15-30 he meant actual likely turnout in November, then I suppose it's possible.

Posted by Jim Dallas on March 07, 2006 to Election 2006 | TrackBack

The SUSA poll included a candiate that won't even appear on the ballot. Felix Alvarado hasn't been in the race since January.

Posted by: Cookie on March 7, 2006 2:29 PM