April 02, 2006
It takes only a plurality

The latest Zogby-WSJ online poll for the Texas Governor's race is out, and guess what? Chris Bell is ahead of Carole Keeton Strayhorn. With the pre-primary DMN poll, that's two out of three showing Bell to be the leading contender against Rick Perry (the dissenter was the also pre-primary Rasmussen result).

Makes you wonder at what point people are going to start noticing this sort of thing and saying to themselves "Hey, maybe Strayhorn isn't the only one who can beat Rick Perry. Maybe she can't beat him at all. Maybe someone else can."

Turns out some people are considering that possibility. Dave McNeely and Bob Ray Sanders, to name two. Add in the Lone Star Project and Chuck McDonald (video link) from Fox 7 Austin and who knows? We just might be witnessing the birth of some new conventional wisdom.

All it takes is a plurailty. Bell doesn't need 50% plus one, he needs Rick Perry plus one. The first step to getting there is believing that it's possible. From where I sit, that should be the easy part.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on April 02, 2006 to Election 2006 | TrackBack

Huh? There's no runoff in the Gov election?

Posted by: Nick Beaudrot on April 2, 2006 5:02 PM

Nope. But in the Bizarro World of Texas Election Law, you have to have a special election to fill a vacant US Senate seat, instead of just letting an appointee fill out the unexpired term like all other statewide offices. I think LBJ had something to do with that...

Posted by: The Local Crank on April 2, 2006 6:24 PM

It's looking more and more like Bell might actually win, with Strayhorn acting as the spoiler that makes it possible.

Perry's still the favorite, but I'm crossing fingers, knocking on wood, and executing just about any other superstitious ritual you can think of.

Posted by: Mathwiz on April 7, 2006 2:23 PM

Chris Bell is ahead of Carole Keeton Strayhorn.

Given the poll's margin of error of +/- 3.5%, Bell's 1.7% lead is pretty slim.

Since there's been a concern of late here about inaccuracy by omission, that's probably worth noting. :D

As the more subjective part of your post goes -- another conclusion one might draw is that not a single one of this weak group of candidates seems likely to beat a sitting governor who has bad numbers himself.

Posted by: Kevin Whited on April 18, 2006 9:11 AM