April 11, 2006
Also today - the CA-50 special election

I haven't really written about it before, but today is also the day of the special election in the San Diego area to replace the convicted felon and Republican former Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham in California's 50th CD. MyDD has the rundown on the race and what to expect. Democrats have done very well in special Congressional elections recently - think Stephanie Herseth and Ben Chandler - but taking this seat would go a long way towards advancing the idea that 2006 is going to be a good year for them. Keep an eye on this one.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on April 11, 2006 to Election 2006 | TrackBack

Can you read that much into the race today?

It's a GOP district, and the GOP seems to have quite a number of serious candidates in the race, meaning the GOP vote today will be fragmented. The Dems seem to be coalescing around one serious candidate.

So isn't it likely that the vote today will show the Dem candidate with a plurality, and therefore ahead of the GOP challenger?

But unless the Dem gets close to 50% (and not the lower number touted by myDD), will it really be anything to get excited about?

Posted by: Kevin Whited on April 11, 2006 12:31 PM

Is Hell freezing over? Although I'm presumably hoping for a different outcome, I'm forced to agree with Kevin.

If Francine Busby wins without a runoff today (or comes very close), it'll be a good omen for the Democrats. But polls have her around 45%, and it's likely most of the Republicans will coalesce around whoever comes in second in a runoff. Therefore, I don't think a 45-25 result would mean much.

Thanks to the time difference, we probably won't know for sure until tomorrow, though.

Posted by: Mathwiz on April 11, 2006 2:06 PM

Busby came in first, as expected, but with under 44% of the vote, so there will be a runoff. Looks like her opponent will be former Congressman Brian Bilbray, who had just over 15%.

Bilbray split the GOP vote with 13 (!) other Republicans. The total vote for GOP candidates was 53%.

The runoff is in June. This one looks like it's gonna be close.

Posted by: Mathwiz on April 12, 2006 2:04 PM