There's a new SurveyUSA poll on the Texas Governor's race. Here's the result:
If the election for Governor of Texas were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Democrat Chris Bell? Independent "Kinky" Friedman? Republican Rick Perry? Independent Carole Keeton Strayhorn? Or some other candidate?
18% Bell (D)
16% Friedman (I)
41% Perry (R)
20% Strayhorn (I)
1,200 Texas adults were interviewed 5/19/06 - 5/21/06. Of them, 1,021 were Registered Voters. Of them, 605 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
Interestingly, the first Rasmussen poll showed Strayhorn significantly ahead of Bell, which was then followed by a second result that showed the two of them virtually tied. That's basically what happened here with SUSA. I don't know what to make of that - it may just be random weirdness.
What is consistent is Perry's hovering in the 40% range. If Bell can consolidate Democratic support, that's a figure he can surpass in November. While I still believe that these polls are not taking into account historical rates of straight-ticket voting, which would guarantee Bell at least 20 to 25% of the final total, it's clear he has his work cut out for him in this regard. Would someone please mail this result to Ben Barnes?
By the way, I think a poll designed to measure the preferences this year of people who have voted straight ticket for either party in the past would be a great idea. Everyone is guessing what the effect of Strayhorn and Friedman on the ballot will be with people who normally stick with one party. Why not ask them and see what happens? Maybe I'm right and straight-ticket Dems say they'll do what they always do, and maybe I'm wrong. Why guess when you can measure? C'mon, pollsters, you know you want to do this!
SUSA link via Political Wire.Posted by Charles Kuffner on May 24, 2006 to Election 2006 | TrackBack