July 25, 2006
And more polls
From Zogby Interactive, via Damon, here are some more numbers on the Texas governor's race:
Perry: 38.3% (+0.6 since June/no change since January)
Bell: 20.8% (+1.1/+2.9)
Kinky: 20.7% (+3.2/+6.3)
Strayhorn: 11% (-3.1/-9.5)
I'll be blunt: Even with the litigation follies
, I have a hard time believing that's a true number for Strayhorn. You can criticize Zogby all you want for its online methods, but it's been pretty consistent with the SUSA and Rasmussen numbers we've seen, with this one exception so far. I can believe that Friedman and Bell have taken some support from Strayhorn, but I'll need to see more results like this before I buy it.
Zogby also pegs the Senate race as
Strayhorn Hutchison 52, Radnofsky 37. Let's just say that I think this is a far more accurate picture of the race than their first cut at it was.
Over at Kuff's World, I've got a look at the latest SurveyUSA poll of the race and of Governor Perry's popularity. Two items of interest here: Check the comments for some feedback from a SurveyUSA person on their methodology, and while bearing the usual small sample size warnings in mind, note that Chris Bell has gone from a ridiculous 32% support from Democrats in an April poll to a slightly-less-ridiculous 44% in this one. I don't know what the over/under will be for Bell's level of Democratic support in the end, but it will be higher than that. If polls ever reflect that, then the cycle-long story line of Perry versus three clustered opponents may finally start to change.
And finally, as if to provide a cranky counterexample, Rasmussen has the race as Perry 40, Strayhorn 20, Friedman 19, and Bell 13. I don't believe that any more than I do Strayhorn having 11. It also says that Strayhorn has a higher approval rating among Dems than Bell does. Again, I rather doubt it, but that's what they've got. Link via Political Wire.
UPDATE: Fixed error in Senate poll. Thanks to Larry Renolds in the comments for the catch.
Posted by Charles Kuffner on July 25, 2006 to Election 2006
"Zogby also pegs the Senate race as Strayhorn 52, Radnofsky 37."
I'm sure you meant to put Hutchison and Radnofsky, not Strayhorn, one crazy grandma.
Strayhorn's numbers are falsely low right now because she is seen as a joke with her stupid one tough grandma thing. Right now, she's just creating a correllation between grandma and strayhorn so that her supporters will know which name to pick. After a while, this fight to put grandma on the ballot will end and fewer people will think she is such a joke and actually consider voting for her.
Rasmussen has the Senate race at 58-31 which is probably more accurate and more consistent with past survey numbers.
Nothing has occurred in this race to really shift the numbers around.
Aaron - In August of 2004, Rasmussen had Bush at 57 and Kerry at 38 in Texas. That was as wide a margin for Bush as they found. Do you believe Hutchison in 2006 is doing that much better in Texas than Bush was in 2004? I grant you she may do better than Bush in the end, but I have my doubts about that 27-point spread.
Yes, I do believe that Kay Bailey Hutchison will do that well.
This is not a Republican year as 2004 was - clearly but remember, Hutchison got almost 70% of the vote in 2000 - well ahead of Bush.
She simply gets too many Independent and even Dmocrat votes.
All the Republicans will vote for Kay -whether or not they support Perry, Carole or evwen Kinky.
Will she get 70% again? No. But I think 60% is well within her reach.
KBH got 65.03% running against perennial non-campaigner Gene Kelly. I do not believe she will approach that number.