Garcia versus Seaman: The money race

The Caller Times reports on the battle in House District 32 between Juan Garcia and incumbent Republican Rep. Gene Seaman.

Garcia, 40, a lawyer and Navy pilot, has raised $205,140.95 to Seaman's $89,956 during the January-to-June 30 contribution period.

But Seaman, first elected in 1996, has a bigger war chest because of funds raised in previous campaign cycles. At the end of the contribution period, after campaign expenses, Seaman has $261,671.74 left to spend compared with Garcia's $80,228.98.

Seaman, of course, was unchallenged in 2004, which gave him a nice head start on this campaign. He had $160K cash on hand in January 2005, and $266K cash on hand a year later. He's actually spent more than he's raised so far this year, which is why the July COH total is down a bit. So basically, if he'd had to empty his warchest as a result of being forced to run a real campaign in 2004, he'd have about $100K on hand right now, assuming he would have fundraised and spent at the same clip. Yet another reason to Run Everywhere.

To defeat Seaman, [political analyst Bob] Bezdek said, Garcia has to minimize Seaman's strength in the predominantly Republican precincts in Nueces County and clean up in Calhoun County. He must do as well in San Patricio County as former San Patricio County Judge and conservative Democrat Josephine Miller when she ran against Seaman in 2002. Miller took 58 percent in her home county in a losing campaign. And he must make inroads in Aransas County.

"The conservative areas where he cleaned Josephine Miller's clock, we are not going to neutralize those areas," Garcia said. "We are going to win."

But it's still District 32, where President George W. Bush took 67 percent in 2004. Also, in the part of District 32 that overlaps Congressional District 27, Republican Willie Vaden took more votes than incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Solomon P. Ortiz, who trounced Vaden overall, Bezdek noted.

Here's the breakdown for HD32 in 2004. As I wrote before, it was less Republican in 2002, splitting 58-42 for the GOP. Seaman underperformed that baseline by over four points. Garcia will need the district to swing back a little, and he'll need to cut into Seaman's base. He is making progress on that front:

Garcia has more than 300 donations from individuals, including some Republicans previously in support of Seaman.

More than 100 people, mostly Republicans, showed up for a recent Garcia fundraiser at homebuilder and developer Duane Scheumack's house in Rockport.

Scheumack voted for Seaman in his past two successful campaigns.

"I don't think I am angry at Gene. I just don't know what Gene has done," Scheumack said. "The thing I was impressed with the most with Garcia is his community, home and fireside values. And I sense a great deal of sincerity with this young man."

[...]

One issue that damaged Seaman in Aransas and San Patricio counties during his last term, is the perception that he nearly allowed the counties to be annexed into the Del Mar College taxing district without their consent.

Residents in both counties complain that Seaman was weak and would not take a stand against the Del Mar measure sponsored by former state Rep. Vilma Luna, D-Corpus Christi, a powerful Democrat aligned with the top Republican leadership.

After a letter-writing campaign initiated in Aransas County, Gov. Rick Perry ended up vetoing the measure.

"I am sure some people feel like he could have been stronger on that issue," said Republican San Patricio County Commissioner Fred Nardini, a Seaman contributor. "All of us in San Patricio County fought very hard to keep that out. I don't know at this point what the outcome will be. With most constituents it's hard to tell whether they have a long memory."

Aransas County resident and Republican Lynn Lee, who voted for Seaman in the past, supports Garcia.

"Del Mar was a great bit of it, yes," Lee said. "I felt he should have taken our side because he had always gotten huge support in Aransas County. In that situation I did not think we should be voted into something where we did not have a say. I now have a feeling that Gene is not aware of what I want."

More of that and it won't matter what Seaman is and isn't aware of.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on August 06, 2006 to Election 2006 | TrackBack