One poll, two views

By now you've probably heard about the latest SurveyUSA governor's poll, which is the third one this month to put Rick Perry in the danger zone of 35% support or less. It also continues the positive trend for Chris Bell, as it shows him in a tie for second with 23%. I blogged about this at Kuff's World, where I interpreted the result as bad for Perry and good for Bell.

Paul Burka, on the other hand, thinks this is just another poll that confirms what everybody already knows, which is that while Perry's level of support sucks, it's still enough for him to win. Among other things, he says:

The most important number on any of the charts is that Perry has 33% of the Hispanic vote. (Bell has 26%.) The Hispanic vote is about 1/6 of the electorate, maybe a little more, which means that Perry's share is worth 5 to 6 points overall. Switch half of those votes to Bell and Perry's lead would be down to 7 points. Perry's success among Hispanic voters is no accident. He has earned it, with appointments (Victor Carrillo to the Railroad Commision) and endorsements (eleven Valley mayors) and visits to South Texas. And the Hispanic community continues to diversify, with upwardly mobile voters who are increasingly likely to vote Republican.

It's interesting that Burka is calling 33% support among Hispanics a success for Perry, because back in 2002 he claimed to have gotten thirty-five percent of the vote.

At an Austin news conference, Perry said he had gotten at least a third of the Hispanic vote, thanks to determined outreach in the state's Hispanic, black and Asian communities.

"There was a very concerted effort on my part," said Perry, saying his success sends a clear message to Republicans.

"If you're right on the issues and reach out to different communities, not only will they embrace you, they will help you and make a difference in a campaign."

Perry's GOP pollster, Mike Baselice, said the campaign's final tracking on Sunday and Monday showed Perry captured 35 percent of the Hispanic vote, 15 percent of the African-American and 72 percent of Anglo.

"We've always said Republicans can squeak by with 25 percent of the state's Hispanic vote," said Baselice.

That claim was disputed by the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project, based on an exit poll done by the William C. Velasquez Institute in Los Angeles. They claimed Perry got 12% of the Hispanic vote. More on that is here.

Republican pollster Mike Baselice, who worked for the Perry campaign, said the governor took 35 percent of the Hispanic vote.

Texas Hispanics historically have voted Democratic, but Republicans nationwide are working to make political inroads with the rapidly growing Hispanic population.

"If Southwest Voter's claims that Perry only received 12 percent of the Hispanic vote were true, then his statewide margin of victory would have been 10.4 percent rather than the actual 17.8 percent he achieved on election night," Baselice said.

At the time, I thought the SWVREP claim was closer to the truth than the Perry/Baselice claim, but in retrospect I think my math was off. Be that as it may, the point is that if Perry was claiming 35% of the Hispanic vote four year ago, it's not exactly much of an accomplishment for him to have 33% of it now. It's also evidence that Perry has nowhere near the level of support among Hispanics that Bush had two years ago. Thirty-three percent, I gotta tell you, doesn't scare me.

Anyway. One poll, two views. See for yourself which one sounds better.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on September 20, 2006 to Election 2006 | TrackBack