The battle for the State House

There's a long article in the Chron today about the electoral battles in the State House and how that may shape the 80th Legislature. A couple of points of interest leap out, starting with this:

Democrats need only to pick off three or four Republican House members to leave Craddick, a Republican from Midland, vulnerable to a challenge from his own party, they say.

Craddick's firm leadership style, described by some as autocratic, has created an undercurrent of discontent, and Republican losses of House seats in the Nov. 7 election could inspire a challenge, said House Mexican-American Caucus Chairman Pete Gallego, D-Alpine.

"There's a sense of, would they rather lose the whole chamber (eventually) or would they rather jettison the speaker, and I think most of them would rather jettison the speaker," Gallego said.

At least four Republican House members are quietly sending signals of their interest in challenging Craddick if Republicans fare poorly in the election, Gallego said. He declined to identify the possible challengers, who don't want to alienate Craddick prematurely.

I'm moderately amazed that Rep. Gallego is saying all this. Not because I don't think that Craddick needs to watch his back, but because this is a rather enormous thing to say for the record. Even picking up four seats would leave the GOP with a solid 82-68 advantage, and even with the departures of Al Edwards and Vilma Luna there's quite a few Dems who are on Craddick's leadership team. If that's not a big enough margin for him to hold on as Speaker, that's really saying something. Maybe this is more of a tactical maneuver on Gallego's part, I don't know. The fact that he said it to a reporter is striking.

Republican campaign experts expect the GOP to keep its 86-64 margin in the 150-member House but concede the potential loss of one seat in a worst-case scenario.

Democrats expect to gain at least two seats and as many as five.

For Democrats, the key races involve an open seat for retiring Rep. Terry Keel, R-Austin, and challenges against incumbents, Rep. Martha Wong, R-Houston, and Rep. Gene Seaman, R-Corpus Christi.

"If (Craddick) loses all three of those, it's possible that he loses his speakership," said Kelly Fero, an Austin-based Democratic campaign consultant.

Republicans counter that several rural Democratic incumbents are vulnerable, along with freshman Rep. Hubert Vo, D-Houston, and that GOP wins in those races would offset Republican losses elsewhere.

"I don't see much change during an off-year election," said Republican campaign consultant Royal Masset of Austin.

Democrats and Republicans each have a half dozen seats that are equally vulnerable, said Bryan Eppstein, a Fort Worth-based GOP consultant.

"For every Republican that loses, there will be a Democrat that loses," Eppstein said.

Republicans concede that changing demographics in the Dallas-Fort Worth area will create tougher than normal re-election campaigns for GOP incumbents Rep. Toby Goodman and Rep. Tony Goolsby.

But they consider rural Democratic incumbents - including Rep. Chuck Hopson, D-Jacksonville; Rep. Mark Homer, D-Paris; Rep. Robby Cook, D-Eagle Lake; and Jim McReynolds, D-Lufkin - as vulnerable targets for GOP gains. And they expect to win the seat of retiring Rep. Pete Laney, D-Hale Center, in West Texas.

However, Democrats counter that former Crosby County Judge Joe Heflin is in good shape to keep Laney's seat in the Democratic column because of his close ties to rural communities and his support for their public schools. Republican nominee Jim Landtroop sends his children to private schools and is backed by school voucher supporters.

I've said this before and I'll say it again: If the rural Dems like Hopson and McReynolds can survive 2002 and 2004, what reason is there to think they'll do worse in 2006? There are no guarantees, of course, and for what it's worth I've heard concerns on the Democratic side about Hopson, but I just don't see what would make this election any tougher for them. Quite the reverse, in fact.

I'm among the people who basically wrote off HD85 when Pete Laney announced his retirement, but since then I've heard all kinds of good things about Joe Heflin, including a lot of optimism about his chances to retain that seat. I'm still not convinced that he can overcome the partisan lean of that district, but he's certainly putting up a good fight. Call me pessimistic but hoping to be surprised.

I note that the other high profile Democratic-held open seat - HD118, formerly occupied by Carlos Uresti - was not mentioned in this article. Given that it's a 55-45 Dem district and that the Republican challenger has a pretty good resume, that's remarkable. If that was an oversight, it's sloppy; if it's a deliberate omission, it's telling. I believe the dynamic of the CD23 special election helps Democratic hopeful Joe Farias more than it helps Republican George Antunya - maybe that has something to do with it. In any event, if this one is not being discussed in the same breath as the others, that's good news for the Dems.

As for the Hubert Vo/Talmadge Heflin rematch, I just don't see it. Heflin had no money as of the June 30 reporting deadline. The district isn't any friendlier to him in terms of demographics. He's no longer the Appropriations chair. It's only recently that he's started any real campaigning, from what I hear. About the only favorable thing I can think of for Heflin is the overlap of HD149 into SD07, where Dan Patrick may have some coattails. But if Republicans are hanging their hats on this sort of analysis, they're sadly mistaken.

In 2004, President George W. Bush took 61.5% of the district vote against John Kerry. And in the only other local race where the entire district voted between Republican and Democratic candidates, Harris County Sheriff Tommy Thomas defeated Democrat Guy Robert Clark by nearly eleven percentage points.

Those of us who can read charts will know that the 61.5% for Bush is his statewide share. He got 53.4% in HD149. Tommy Thomas was one of a dozen or so countywide Republicans in contested races, and as with Bush he scored lower in HD149 than he did overall - 53.9% in the district versus 55.4% overall. Frankly, I feel better about Vo's chances after reading this.

There are other races the article doesn't mention as being potential swings. Republicans will be aiming for the other two freshman Dems, Mark Strama in Austin and David Leibowitz in San Antonio, plus Yvonne Gonzalez Toureiiles and the open seat left behind by Vilma Luna, both in South Texas. Democrats have quite a few other prospects besides the three named above - Kristi Thibaut in Houston and a raft of Dallas/Fort Worth candidates: Paula Hightower Pearson, Harriet Miller, Katy Hubener, Allen Vaught (who picked up a nice DMN endorsement to go with his ParentPAC nod), and Phillip Shinoda. Capitol Inside has a list of some "sleeper" races that I'll get to in a subsequent post, almost all of which are Democratic opportunities.

Bottom line as I see it is that the Dems are very likely to pick up seats. I'd call one a disappointment rather than a best case. I don't know if they can get enough to put Tom Craddick in danger of becoming an ex-Speaker, but I do believe he will have a smaller circle of lieutenants to command. We'll know soon enough.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on October 09, 2006 to Election 2006 | TrackBack