Looking forward in CD22

This piece about Nick Lampson's efforts to get on the Appropriations Committee also talks about his political future, based on this year's vote.

Lampson earned 52 percent of the vote in complete but unofficial returns in the 22nd Congressional District, which includes Houston suburbs in Harris, Fort Bend, Galveston and Brazoria counties.

The 22nd was a fierce battle, as the GOP tried to hold the seat in the Republican-leaning district when former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay resigned after winning the party's nomination for a 12th term. Courts ruled that the GOP could not replace DeLay on the general election ballot.

Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, backed by the GOP, mounted a strong but unsuccessful write-in bid for the seat. She won a separate special election to serve the final few weeks of DeLay's term.

DeLay had kept the seat firmly in Republican hands for more than 20 years, and the district remains solidly conservative. But with no Republican candidate on the general election ballot, the race became an uphill battle for the GOP.

Now Republicans say it will be equally hard for Lampson to hold the seat in 2008.

Lampson points to the majority he won in each county in the district and says he plans to be an independent voice.

"If I'm able to accomplish what I said I was going to accomplish, the people would be pleased to send me back to Congress. I will earn it," he said.

Shelley Sekula Gibbs did a lot better in the voting than I thought she'd do, about ten points higher than what I thought her ceiling was. She ran a strong campaign, and clearly benefitted from the NRCC voter education effort. I don't think a couple extra million bucks would have made much more difference, because I think in the end time was her main enemy - you can only convince so many people to change their longstanding habits in a couple of months. I'll have to take a hard look at the straight-ticket vote in the CD22 precincts, and I'll have to see if I can determine whether a straight-ticket-plus-one-race vote is recorded as a straight ticket vote or not.

I really thought Bob Smither would do better by virtue of being on the ballot, being as high profile as a Libertarian candidate ever is, and being reasonably compatible from an ideology perspective, while also promising to caucus with the GOP. But the breakdown of the vote was not far from what you'd expect in a standard R/D/L race, and that's a tribute to Sekula Gibbs' efforts. It still wasn't enough, but it wasn't bad at all.

It'll be interesting to see who lines up against Shelley in the '08 GOP primary. I'm sure we haven't seen the last of Mayor Dave, and I'm sure several of the other Chosen One wannabes will at least sniff around this one. All I'll say for now is that this will be fun to watch.

As for Lampson's odds in 2008, I've already said that I think he can hold it, though of course it won't be easy and he'll be GOP Target #1. Lampson did win all four counties in CD22, though again I'll want to check straight ticket voting (where possible) before putting too much faith into that. His last go round in the Harris County portion of CD22, where it overlapped with his old district, showed that he can outperform the Dem baseline. I certainly expect he'll do as well in the Clear Lake/NASA area as anyone could. Hal has already crunched some numbers in Fort Bend and showed that the trend there from 2002 is positive. Lampson had an excellent reputation for constituent services, and I expect he'll continue that. His work is cut out for him, but I daresay he knows that, and will hit the ground running

Posted by Charles Kuffner on November 09, 2006 to Election 2006 | TrackBack