The Richmond Rail effect

Last month, I asked the question whether or not John Culberson's vehement anti-Richmond rail stance would help him in the precincts that immediately surround the affected stretch of Richmond Ave. The question came up again in the cover story that the Houston Press wrote about Culberson's opponent, Jim Henley:

One problem for Henley -- well, one problem beyond the fact the district is gerrymandered for a Republican -- is the inner-loop neighborhoods along Richmond. Usually they could be relied on for some Democratic support, but they are mightily pissed at Metro for trying to build a light-rail line through their neighborhoods. Culberson has made clear he agrees with them, and if reelected he'd be a formidable ally for the residents. (Although perhaps not as formidable as in the past, if Democrats take control of the House.)

Well, at long last the precinct data is in, and the answer is clear. First, let's review what we observed in 2004, when Culberson easily defeated John Martinez, who ran a low profile campaign.

Pcnct Ballots  Culb      Pct  Mrtnez      Pct   C/M Pct M/C Pct

===============================================================

39       1809   473   26.15%    1187   65.62%    28.49%  71.51%

60       1625   422   25.97%    1027   63.20%    29.12%  70.88%

123       866   236   27.25%     544   62.82%    30.26%  69.74%

139      1688   773   45.79%     767   45.44%    50.19%  49.81%

177      1024   635   62.01%     310   30.27%    67.20%  32.80%

178      1346   905   67.24%     328   24.37%    73.40%  26.60%

233      1597   837   52.41%     610   38.20%    57.84%  42.16%

569      1791  1065   59.46%     685   38.25%    60.86%  39.14%

802       237    46   19.41%     162   68.35%    22.12%  77.88%


Total   11983  5392   45.00%    5620   46.90%    48.96%  51.04%

"Pct" refers to the percent of the total ballot, which includes undervotes and votes for the Libertarian candidate. "C/M Pct" and "M/C Pct" are the straight-up Culberson versus Martinez percentages. As noted before, Culberson was weak in Montrose (precincts 39, 60, 123, and 802), strong in Afton Oaks (precincts 177, 178, and 569, which is just outside the Loop and wasn't examined last time), and modestly successful in Greenway Plaza (precincts 139 and 233). Overall, Martinez won the vote here, but not by a lot.

Now let's look at 2006 and see how Culberson fared against Henley and with the rail issue at the forefront in these areas:

Pcnct Ballots  Culb      Pct  Henley      Pct   C/H Pct H/C Pct

===============================================================

39       1273   246   19.32%     958   75.26%    20.43%  79.57%

60       1050   202   19.24%     790   75.24%    20.36%  79.64%

123       513   117   22.81%     364   70.96%    24.32%  75.68%

139      1061   423   39.87%     564   53.16%    42.86%  57.14%

177       658   403   61.25%     237   36.02%    62.97%  37.03%

178       968   697   72.00%     231   23.86%    75.11%  24.89%

233      1583   791   49.97%     696   43.97%    53.19%  46.81%

569      1076   556   51.67%     454   42.19%    55.05%  44.95%

802       205    42   20.49%     149   72.68%    21.99%  78.01%


Total    8387  3477   41.46%    4443   52.97%    43.90%  56.10%

As you can see, with the exception of one of the Afton Oaks precincts, Culberson lost ground everywhere along Richmond Avenue. Henley won a majority of the total vote, and had a twelve point lead in the head to head matchup. Where Culberson had carried Greenway Plaza by 233 votes and won both of its precincts, he now lost precinct 139 and trailed overall by 46 votes. Precinct 233, which had almost identical turnout to 2004, saw a 132 vote swing away from Culberson. Any way you look at it, the answer is loud and clear: Being anti-Richmond rail did not help John Culberson in the neighborhoods that would be affected by Richmond Rail.

Christof provides a nice graphic of the area and the relative vote totals, and reminds us that Culberson based his opposition to Richmond rail on "public opinion", which he said was against Richmond rail. One can only conclude from looking at the data that Culberson is wrong about this. The people spoke (again!), and John Culberson did not speak for them.

There was another race in this area for which Richmond rail was an issue: the HD134 race between Martha Wong and Ellen Cohen. Wong was also a public opponent of rail on Richmond. How'd that work out for her? Here's the 2004 matchup against Democrat Jim Daugherty:

Pcnct Ballots  Wong      Pct  Dghrty       Pct  W/D Pct D/W Pct

===============================================================

39      1809    475   26.26%    1208    66.78%   28.22%  71.78%

60      1625    425   26.15%    1058    65.11%   28.66%  71.34%

139     1688    755   44.73%     800    47.39%   48.55%  51.45%

177     1024    621   60.64%     336    32.81%   64.89%  35.11%

178     1346    859   63.82%     411    30.53%   67.64%  32.36%

233     1597    830   51.97%     663    41.52%   55.59%  44.41%

802      237     46   19.41%     164    69.20%   21.90%  78.10%


Total   9326   4011   43.01%    4640    49.75%   46.36%  53.64%

Precincts 123 (Montrose) and 569 (Afton Oaks outside Loop 610) are not in HD134. As with Culberson, Wong lost Montrose big, won Afton Oaks easily, and ran slightly ahead in Greenway Plaza, though she only won one of its two precincts. And for 2006, against Ellen Cohen?

Pcnct Ballots  Wong      Pct   Cohen       Pct  W/C Pct C/W Pct

===============================================================

39       1273   235   18.46%     986    77.45%   19.25%  80.75%

60       1050   203   19.33%     798    76.00%   20.28%  79.72%

139      1061   359   33.84%     655    61.73%   35.40%  64.60%

177       658   381   57.90%     264    40.12%   59.07%  40.93%

178       968   611   63.12%     311    32.13%   66.27%  33.73%

233      1583   721   45.55%     794    50.16%   47.59%  52.41%

802       205    45   21.95%     145    70.73%   23.68%  76.32%


Total    6798  2555   37.58%    3953    58.15%   39.26%  60.74%

A total rout, even bigger than Henley/Culberson. Wong got creamed in Montrose, thanks in part to the HGLBTPC blockwalking effort, lost both Greenway Plaza precincts, and even slipped in Afton Oaks. Whatever the effect was in the Henley/Culberson race, it was magnified here.

Bottom line, plain and simple: Opposing rail on Richmond is not a winning issue in the neighborhoods that will be affected by rail on Richmond. The people who live there do not vote for anti-Richmond rail candidates. Say it loud, and say it often.

UPDATE: Since I posted this, Christof pointed out to me that strictly speaking, only Precinct 178 is Afton Oaks. Precincts 177 and 569 cover the similar but not the same areas of Lynn Park, Highland Village, St. George's Place, and others. Unlike Afton Oaks, the Lynn Park and Highland Village civic clubs are neutral on Richmond rail, while the president of the St. George's Place club is actively campaigning for it. If nothing else, this explains why only precinct 178 showed any improvement for Culberson. My apologies for any confusion.

UPDATE: Here's a similar graphic for Martha Wong and HD134, from Christof.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on November 17, 2006 to Election 2006 | TrackBack