The McGwire conundrum

It's that time of year again, when the Hall of Fame ballot is released. This time, it comes with a side order of heartburn.

Mark McGwire, Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. headline the first-time candidates on the 2007 baseball writers' Hall of Fame ballot released Monday, sure to spark debate on Big Mac's place in history as the steroid era comes under renewed scrutiny.

Jose Canseco, whose book last year led to a congressional hearing on steroid use in baseball, also is on the ballot for the first time. Canseco said he used steroids along with McGwire when they were teammates.

McGwire denied using illegal performance-enhancing substances, but when he appeared before a congressional committee, he evaded questions. "I'm not here to talk about the past," was his repeated response.

McGwire finished his career with 583 home runs, seventh in baseball history while Canseco, a former MVP, is 30th at 462. Dave Kingman, 34th with 442, has the most home runs for a player who has been on the Hall of Fame ballot and was not elected.

Canseco is easy enough to dismiss. At his peak (say, 1988) he was Hall-worthy, but he spent way too much time not playing. I mean, only five seasons with 150+ games played? Please. The homers only count for so much.

As for McGwire, well, lots of voters don't like him very much.

The Associated Press surveyed about 20 percent of eligible voters, and only one in four who gave an opinion plan to vote for McGwire this year. That's far short of the 75 percent necessary to gain induction.

"There is a clause on the ballot indicating that character should be considered and after his nonperformance at the congressional hearings his character certainly comes into play," said the Dayton Daily News' Hal McCoy.

"He doesn't want to talk about the past?" he said, "Then I don't want to consider his past."

I'm a lot less exercised about steroids than most people - I'm not convinced they have a measurable positive effect, and I think too much attention is focused on 'roids and not enough on stimulants. But to each his own. I think McGwire hit more home runs per plate appearance than any other player ever. He belongs in the Hall, and I think that over time he'll eventually get the support he needs to make it. I've no quarrel with anyone who wants to sit him out for a year or two to make a point, but sooner or later I think his record on the field needs a fair evaluation. Circumstances may yet cause me to change my mind, but if I had a ballot, he'd be on it.

I suppose what really bugs me is the kind of ignorance that folks such as Frank Robinson, who ought to know better, will express and the effect it will have on McGwire's candidacy.

"Let's take Barry Bonds," Robinson said. "You don't get better as you get older."

Bonds won his last four - consecutive - of seven Most Valuable Player awards after he turned 37. In order, in those four seasons, Bonds hit 73, 46, 45 and 45 home runs. When Robinson was the same age, he hit 19, 30, 22 and nine homers , respectively, the usual decline as a slugger passes 35 years old.

As suggested by David Pinto, here are Hank Aaron's seasonal homerun totals from ages 35 to 39:

Age 35 - 44
Age 36 - 38
Age 37 - 47
Age 38 - 34
Age 39 - 40

The 47 dingers in 1971 was a career high, as was the .669 slugging percentage that accompanied it. He had a career-second best .643 SLG at age 39. Is there anything untoward about this?

Similarly, here's Babe Ruth from ages 35 to 39:

Age 35 - 49
Age 36 - 46
Age 37 - 40
Age 38 - 34
Age 39 - 22

Ruth actually did decline all five years - his slugging percentage started at .732 and went down each year, ending up at .537 in 1934. He started at such a ridiculously high peak, of course, that he had nowhere else to go but down, and unlike Aaron (and Barry Bonds, for that matter), he wasn't the classically sleek athletic type that ages more gracefully.

We're on a side track here, but as Barry Bonds will inevitably be dragged into these conversations, it's important to remember that merely having a late peak is not of itself evidence of anything other than being in good shape. McGwire, as it happens, was out of baseball by the time he was 38 after a miserable last season. If 'roids gave him a peak, they sure didn't ease his descent.

Anyway. My ballot, if I had one, would include McGwire, Ripken, Gwynn, and the players from last year who were passed over - Bert Blyleven, Rich Gossage, and Tommy John. I guess I still haven't made my mind up about Alan Trammell. Who's on your list?

Posted by Charles Kuffner on November 29, 2006 to Baseball | TrackBack