Fourteen for 07

Now that hurricane season is officially over, we can begin hurricane prediction season for 2007.

Colorado State forecaster William Gray has predicted 14 named storms for next year, including three major hurricanes and four other hurricanes.

He and fellow researcher Philip Klotzbach said there is a 64 percent chance of one of the major hurricanes - with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater - coming ashore. The long-term average probability is 52 percent, they said.

Still, they said said fewer hurricanes are likely to make landfall compared with 2005, which had the busiest and most destructive hurricane season on record.

In 2005, we saw 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, four of which hit the United States. The worst of those was Katrina, which leveled parts of the Gulf Coast.

Gray's prediction for 2005: 11 named storms in the Atlantic and Gulf Coast basins, and a 69 percent chance that at least one major storm - a category-3 hurricane or larger - would make landfall in the United States.

This year's season had nine named storms and five hurricanes, two of them major. That was considered a "near normal" season but fell short of predictions by Gray and government scientists.

Before the six-month season began June 1, Gray's team predicted 17 named storms and nine hurricanes for 2006, with five growing into major storms of Category 3 or higher.

No hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast in 2006 - only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945.

Gray and Klotzbach blamed their inaccurate prediction for the 2006 season on a late-developing El Nino and unusual levels of dry air.

It should be noted that they changed course late in the season this year when the El Nino effect was apparent. Better late than never.

Jeff Masters comments on this prediction and one other by the Tropical Storm Risk consortium. SciGuy thinks the whole thing is a bit useless this far out, but you know how the media loves numbers. And indeed, he has a story about this, as you'd expect. The one thing worth worrying about:

If El Nino weakens this winter, which is a tad earlier than expected, historically the chances of an active year go way up. The last time such a scenario transpired? 2005.

Guess we'll have to watch for that. It's a lot more enjoyable making fun of these guys when they overestimate, not when they underestimate.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on December 09, 2006 to Hurricane Katrina | TrackBack