Moving towards the middle ground?

Via South Texas Chisme, the Statesman talks to some legislators who think this session is going to be a lot less partisan and rancorous than previous ones.

The influx of Democrats will moderate the majority and lead to a more moderate House, veteran legislative consultant Olan Brewer said.

Lobbyist Bill Ratliff, a former GOP state senator who doubled up for a spell as lieutenant governor, agreed, partly because voters scuttled some "more extreme" members.

"Inevitably, that moves the House a little more to the center," Ratliff said.

Rep. Jim Dunnam of Waco, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, said to "look for the emergence of a bipartisan majority" that will come up with "things that make sense."

Rep. Sid Miller of Stephenville, vice chairman of the House Republican Caucus, said that at least one conservative cause won't advance in part because of the new Democrats: state-funded vouchers that would enable selected low-income students to attend private schools.

Miller said issues that previously divided members along party lines - including redistricting, abortion and same-sex marriage - are not likely to return.

"I look for some more healing, really a more congenial attitude in the Legislature. . . . We're going to have a lot less fireworks," he said.

I do think having a closer-to-even balance among Rs and Ds in the Lege will calm the waters a bit, if for no better reason than it will be that much harder for House Speaker Tom Craddick to ram things through on mostly party lines. Whether or not Craddick survives as Speaker - and as much as I wish he wouldn't, the odds are with him - his influence has waned. He's lost too many key lieutenants, from both parties, and too many people who were targeted for not being in lockstep with him have lived to tell about it. He won't need it the way Pete Laney did in his last terms as Speaker, but Craddick is going to have to try a little consensus, because ruling by fear and fiat won't work for him this time.

But it's not just Craddick whose wings have been clipped. Rick Perry won't be the force he was in the past four years, either. That's partly because there (probably! hopefully!) isn't any cause for more special sessions, and partly because, well, who fears a 39% Governor? As with Craddick, Perry saw allies go down and foes stay standing over the past year. He too has less margin for intimidation. And, not to put too fine a point on it, the conservative base that Perry wooed and wouldn't have been re-elected without is mightily pissed at him for his little immigration flipflop. In short, he has very little political capital.

Now it may well be that the result of all this is more of a return to focusing on real issues and consensus solutions. That'd be nice, but I don't have as much faith as Rep. Miller in the likelihood of divisive issues being absent. The business tax, associated property tax cuts, and still-unsettled matter of putting school finance on firm ground is going to be a dominant theme, and I feel certain that there's plenty of acrimony to be found there. Dan Patrick, who I suspect is sensing a bit of a leadership void on his side of the aisle, is going to be right there pushing an end to the two-thirds rule in the Senate and a trigger bill to ban abortion in the (now less likely, thanks to South Dakota voters) event of Roe v. Wade being overturned. I expect casino gambling to resurface, and of course there's Rep. Berman's anti-immigration bill as well. In short, there will be plenty of opportunities for the legislative equivalent of lucha libre.

You could see how previous sessions were going to go well in advance of the opening gavel. This one, I think, could go in any number of directions. Smooth sailing - or at least, smoother than before, which isn't that high a bar to clear - is a possibility, but probably not the favorite. Vince has his doubts about the "more moderation" thesis as well. We shall see.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on December 12, 2006 to That's our Lege | TrackBack