Where the votes are these days

Let me introduce you to Harris County Precinct 697. It's a very Democratic precinct, but it doesn't get a lot of turnout, at least not compared to some of its neighboring precincts. Here's what happened in Precinct 697 last year:

Precinct     RVs  Votes  Turnout   Harless Khan   Pct  Sharp   Pct

==================================================================

697         5198   1108    21.32       323  704  68.6    710  69.0

Yes, Precinct 697 is in HD126, which means it's out in a part of the county where Democrats don't do much in the way of campaigning. It's also the single biggest precinct in that district, and as you can see it performs very well from a Democratic perspective. If it were in Democratic turf, it would be a prime target for GOTV operations, especially as part of a coordinated county campaign like we're expecting to get in 2008.

The reason why I'm introducing you to this precinct is that I believe we have to rethink our notion of where Democratic voters are, and where our turnout efforts need to be, if we really are serious about turning Harris County blue in 2008 and beyond. We know how to fish in the friendly waters, but we've got to be willing to venture beyond them, because the data tell me there's a lot of opportunity to better Democratic performance if only we'd expand our aim a little.

Let's take a closer look at HD126, which is very much a Republican district, but not a monolith. Here are all of the precincts in HD126 where Democrats ran well:

Precinct     RVs  Votes  Turnout   Harless Khan   Pct  Sharp   Pct

==================================================================

468         3792    841    22.18       245  548  68.3    535  68.2

520         3977    715    17.98       249  405  61.9    419  64.1

613         2614    564    21.58       155  379  71.0    389  72.7

614         4133   1177    28.48       446  654  59.4    667  60.7

697         5198   1108    21.32       323  704  68.6    710  69.0

757         3712    590    15.89       187  363  66.0    382  68.2

873          729    144    19.75        34  102  75.0    108  78.3

("Sharp" is Jim Sharp, the top votegetter among Dems in Harris County last year.) I submit to you that if I showed you these numbers, and you didn't know where these precincts were, you'd agree with me that they're ripe for a turnout improvement plan. I don't know why you wouldn't want to take these 60%+ Democratic precincts and try to drive their turnout up. That's where the votes are, after all. Yet every one of these precincts had lower turnout than every single other precinct in HD 126. Overall turnout was 33.96%, and only two Republican precincts came in at under 30%.

Putting it another way, total turnout in the Democratic precincts of HD126 was 21.28%; in the Republican precincts, it was 39.00%. By my rough calculation, had the Dem precincts turned out at that level, Democrats would have netted about a thousand extra votes. When you realize that Mary Kay Green missed being elected by less than 7000 votes, that's really something.

Now, I know it's easy to be seduced by the lure of GOTV as a cure-all for electoral woes. Turning out voters, especially voters who aren't habitual voters, is hard. So let's take a look at how these precincts performed in 2002 for comparison purposes:

Precinct     RVs  Votes  Turnout  Dewhurst Sharp   Pct

======================================================

468         3538   1007    28.46       345   593  63.2

520         4084    856    20.96       399   414  50.9

613         2643    750    28.38       221   503  69.5

614         4085   1349    33.02       609   689  53.1

697         4064   1181    29.06       395   728  64.8

757         2193    360    16.42       143   187  56.7

873          652    212    32.52        66   136  67.3 

Here, "Sharp" refers to John Sharp. Peggy Hamric ran unopposed, so I'm skipping that race. Note two things here: Turnout was better in every precinct in 2002, and Democratic performance was better in every precinct in 2006. Maybe some of that was Republicans being more likely to stay home last year, but maybe these precincts, especially 520, are getting even bluer. In 2002 at least there was a rudimentary GOTV operation in the form of a high-dollar TV advertising campaign. Whatever the merits or flaws of the Democratic statewide effort of that year, there was nothing remotely like it this last time around.

What I'm saying is simply this. I believe there are a lot of precincts like the ones I've documented here - blue dots in red areas. (I'm going to review the other Republican HDs as well to try to prove that.) I believe that Democrats in Harris County have not expended much, if any, effort in targeting the voters in those areas. I believe we are not maximizing our efforts to win countywide if we are not targeting those voters. I believe we need to give some thought as to how we do this - certainly, mail needs to be a part of it, but being on the ground has to be a part of it as well. Ideally, there'd be a State Rep campaign to be the focal point of the latter. Point is, almost anything we might think of is likely to be better than what we've been doing.

I'll report on more of these areas in the coming weeks. Let me know what you think.

UPDATE: Here's Precinct 697.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on June 25, 2007 to Election 2008