A closer look at SD17

I see that Cory disagrees with my assertion that SD17 is "somewhat purple", based on the spreadsheet I had linked to earlier. Fair enough. Here's a more detailed look, which as you can see is still a bit of a work in progress. I'll summarize the relevant data here:

GOP candidate   Votes    Pct

============================

Abbott         87,643  61.51

Hutchison      88,162  61.46

Dewhurst       85,510  60.54

Combs          85,388  60.42

Patterson      81,029  58.31

Staples        78,889  56.77

Ames Jones     78,321  56.61

Keller         79,830  56.43

Perry          58,089  55.43

Willett        74,538  53.95




Dem candidate   Votes    Pct 

============================

Moody          63,630  46.05

Bell           46,669  44.57

Molina         61,641  43.57

Henry          60,041  43.39

Gilbert        60,077  43.23

Hathcox        57,932  41.69

Head           55,943  39.58

Alvarado       55,739  39.46

Radnofsky      55,305  38.54

Van Os         54,836  38.49

I threw in a Perry-versus-Bell comparison as well just for the heck of it. As you can see, across the board Dem performance was a point or so better in the district than statewide. To my mind, anyplace that Bill Moody can draw 46% of the vote is at least somewhat purple, so I'll stand by my assessment. As I said before, it'll take a chunk of money for any Dem to have a chance. But I do believe that chance exists, if the candidate and the funding exist. We'll see how that goes. And as The Professors note, the Republicans may have to deal with a little internecine squabbling to keep their hold on this one. So who knows what might happen?

Finally, here's a little update on who may or may not run from the Chron:

Former Harris County Republican Chairman Gary Polland, state Rep. Charlie Howard, R-Sugar Land, and state Rep. Scott Hochberg, D-Houston, have said they will consider a Senate race.

Sportscaster and former Houston Oilers football player Spencer Tillman of Sugar Land, who also had been weighing a race, is out of the running because he doesn't live in the district.

Janek said he had talked with Tillman about running but failed to double check his residence.

"I'm not trying to engineer it (the election date)," he said.

The district has a Republican edge, but Hochberg said it has been "trending less Republican, more Democratic" in recent years.

In a special election, Republicans and Democrats run on the same ballot. If the special election were held on Nov. 4, however, House nominees would have to choose between running for re-election or for the Senate.

Hochberg is unopposed in the Democratic primary and will face a Libertarian opponent in November. Howard has two opponents in the GOP primary.

As we know from the Vilma Luna situation, should either Hochberg or Howard (assuming he wins his primary) resign to run for Senate, both Rs and Ds would get to nominate candidates to run to replace them. That would benefit Rs more than Ds, as Hochberg's district is much purpler than Howard's.

UPDATE: WWLBJD thinks the Rs are favored here, but likes the Dems' chances more against Howard or Polland.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on January 30, 2008 to Election 2008