March 05, 2008
Checking my predictions

Report card time...

1. President, both parties My guess: Obama by ten points, McCain with about 60%. Turnout of over 2.5 million on the Dem side, less than 1.5 million on the GOP side.

Well, I was wrong about Obama winning, and I overestimated McCain's percentage, but I got the turnout numbers right.

2. US Senate My guess: Despite some public mutterings about a runoff, I think Rick Noriega ekes out a majority. Gene Kelly ends up in the 20s, with the other two sharing the rest.

Nailed that one. Yes!

3. CD10 My guess: Dan Grant, in a win for endorsements over fundraising.


5. CD22, GOP My guess: Toughest one in the bunch. I think Shelley makes it to the runoff, thus kicking off a wild celebration at Wonkette world headquarters, but who else makes it is a complete tossup. I'm going to go with Pete Olson, and I'll be completely unsurprised to be wrong.

But I'm not wrong, I got it exactly right.

6. Harris County District Attorney, GOP, and Travis County DA, Dem My guess: For Harris, Siegler and Lykos in the runoff. And that sound you'll hear afterwards is the membership of the HCCLA gnashing their teeth and rending their garments. For Travis, I'll be rooting for a Lehmberg-Reed matchup, but I suspect Mindy Montford's money will get her a spot in the playoffs against one of those two.

I was right about Siegler and Lykos, and half right in Travis - it's Lehmberg versus Montford.

7. Harris County Judge, both parties; Sheriff and Tax Assessor, Dems My guess: For the GOP, Charles Bacarisse. I see him as running a more partisan campaign, which strikes me not surprisingly as a better strategy for a primary. And though it won't matter, whoever designed the font on Ed Emmett's yard signs should be flogged. On the Dem side, I see David Mincberg winning easily, and I believe both Adrian Garcia and Diane Trautman will prevail as well, Garcia hopefully avoiding a runoff.

I was wrong about Emmett/Bacarisse, right about everything else.

8. HDs 130 (GOP), 140 and 146 (Dem) My guess: I think Danno's boy Alan Fletcher wins in 130, though I'm not confident about it. I think Armando Walle knocks off Kevin Bailey, and I think Borris Miles survives by the skin of his teeth.

Wrong, alas, about Miles, but right about Fletcher and Walle (woo hoo!).

9. Supreme Court and Railroad Commissioner My guess: For Surpeme Court, Linda Yanez and Sam Houston. I feel more confident about the latter than the former. For RRC, I think Art Hall and Dale Henry end up in a runoff.

I still can't believe Mark Thompson led the field and almost won outright for RRC, but he's in a runoff with Dale Henry, so I'm half right there and right about the Supreme Court races.

10. Harris County judicials (your choice) My guess: Hell if I know. I see them all as tossups. Whatever the final turnout is on the Dem side, barring something like a 75% dropoff from the Presidential race you're looking at 100,000 or more voters who weren't touched by either campaign ultimately picking the nominees. That's got to be giving a lot of people ulcers.

I'm pretty sure I'm right about the ulcers.

Overall, not too shabby a day of prognostication for me. What results surprised you?

Posted by Charles Kuffner on March 05, 2008 to Election 2008

I never expected Edwards to win over Miles. That said, I never expected Miles to be his own worst enemy. My hope is that Miles pulls through in the runoff or else he'll be eating humble pie for a long time.

Posted by: Kts on March 5, 2008 12:41 PM

You were right about the ulcers. County Wide Judicial Races are tough when most of the people at the polls have very little of an idea who these people are! Many candidiates went to bed last night not knowing if they won. I'm pretty happy with the group our party has though. Well, sure, not all of them were my first picks, but you have to admit, we came out with a pretty good bunch.

Posted by: Becca on March 5, 2008 2:47 PM

Someone might let kts know that sadly, Edwards is the winner and there will not be a run off. Miles has only himself to blame. On another note, I do hope one day the state democratic party leadership gets its act together. Of course we have been waiting decades for that so I am not holding my breath. The Texas two step needs to be trashed. The chaotic process last night humiliated the Texas democratic party.

Posted by: cb on March 5, 2008 2:57 PM

Thanks cb you're right - I'm suffering from the lack of sleep since my caucuses took hours. You're also correct about the caucus process. It encourages widespread voter fraud plain and simple. What happened in some areas of Harris County was just pathetic.

Posted by: Kts on March 5, 2008 3:54 PM

One thing that surprised me about some of the contested district court races--although perhaps it shouldn't have--is the lack of influence of some of the heavy hitters in the local legal community versus the apparently substantial influence of precinct chairs and political types. On the Democratic side, this is pretty evident in the race for the 125th District Court bench, where Kyle Carter--well supported by some big name local Dems--absolutely trounced Jim Wrotenbery--a local legal bigwig with a lot of legal community support. Same thing took place in the 80th, where Tanner Garth--receiving support from some big names in the local plaintiffs' bar--trailed both Marc Isenberg and Larry Weiman. On the Republican side, similar things happened in the First Court of Appeals race, where Sam Nuchia lost to Ed Hubbard, despite the Chronicle's endorsement. While the Houston Bar Association poll has never been exactly kind to Nuchia, he topped Hubbard handily in the state bar poll. Nevertheless, the First will be getting at least one new justice next year.

Posted by: Iain on March 6, 2008 10:07 AM
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