Tag Archives: CD32

Once again with female Congressional candidates

This is another post that was drafted in the Before Times, specifically right after the March primary. I went through the runoffs and assessed all of the races that could or would contain a female candidate or incumbent against a … Continue reading

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Congressional Dems winning the money race in Texas

The times, they have definitely changed. Early this election cycle, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn publicly worried about complacency within the Texas Republican political class — even after Democratic gains made in 2018. So in early 2019, the state’s senior senator … Continue reading

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A slightly less rosy view of Democratic prospects

Here’s the latest race ratings from Texas Elects: Texas Election Source has updated 27 race ratings based on the latest polling, July campaign finance reports and primary runoff results. Twenty of those races moved one column toward the Democrats’ advantage. … Continue reading

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CD03 poll: Taylor 43, Seikaly 37

I expect we’ll see a fair amount of Congressional district polling this cycle. There is a single-digit race underway for Texas’ traditionally red 3rd Congressional District, according to a new poll from the new Democratic nominee’s campaign. The nominee, Lulu … Continue reading

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July 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

Congratulations, everyone. Not only have we made it to the other side of another quarterly reporting period, we have also successfully navigated the primary runoffs. My next quarterly finance report post for Congress will thus be shorter, as this is … Continue reading

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Dems could possibly win a lot of Congressional races in Texas

It started with this: what does a biden win in texas look like? here’s how a D+1 nailbiter might turn out, if we use 2016 and 2018 as a guide → (hint: biden would win 9 currently R-held districts and … Continue reading

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The bad guys will be spending a lot in Texas, too

Don’t get complacent. The Koch-backed Americans For Prosperity is planning an unprecedented push into Texas in 2020, throwing its support behind a slew of Republican candidates and expecting to spend millions as Democrats also commit more resources to the state … Continue reading

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Comparing the April finance reports

In my roundup of April finance reports for Congress, I said I’d do a comparison of the 2018 numbers to 2020. I’m a blogger of his word, so let’s have that look. Dist Year Name Raised Spent Loans On Hand … Continue reading

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April 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

Hey, remember politics? You know, races and finance reports and stuff like that? Yeah, it’s still happening, weird as that may seem right now. As we are well into April, the Q1 Congressional finance reports for 2020 are in, and … Continue reading

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Does getting to 40% make you likely to win the runoff?

I was talking with some fellow political nerds last week, and one of the topics was the forthcoming runoffs. As is usually the case, this year we have some runoffs between candidates who finished fairly close together in round one, … Continue reading

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January 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

The big ones for this cycle the Q4 2019 Congressional finance reports. For the last time, we have new candidates joining the list, and a couple of folks dropping out. Let’s do the thing and see where we are going … Continue reading

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On Republican female Congressional candidates

The sub-head for this article should be “It’s easy to show large percentage gains when you start from a very low base”. Heavy recruiting of female candidates paid off for Texas Democrats in 2018, but it is Republican women who … Continue reading

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Our first Congressional race ratings

From Politico, here’s the early view of the state of Texas’ Congressional races in 2020. Lean Dem CD23 (Open, R) CD32 (Allred, D) Tossup CD07 (Fletcher, D) CD22 (Open, R) CD24 (Open, R) Lean GOP CD02 (Crenshaw, R) CD10 (McCaul, … Continue reading

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October 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

Moving on to the Q3 FEC reports, we again have new candidates making their appearance. The January roundup is here, which closed out the 2017-18 election cycle, the April report is here, and the July report is here. For comparison, … Continue reading

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Secondhand Sessions

If at first you don’t succeed, find something easier to do. Former U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions formally launched his campaign Thursday to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Bill Flores, R-Bryan, opting against running again in his old Dallas-based district and pressing … Continue reading

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Rep. Will Hurd to step down

Wow. I did not see this coming. The U.S. House’s last black Republican member, Rep. Will Hurd of Helotes, announced Thursday that he is retiring from Congress. President Donald Trump’s racist comments about elected officials weighed heavily on Hurd, who … Continue reading

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July 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

Let’s move over to Congress and the Senate, where there are several new candidates, with more on the way. The January roundup is here, which closed out the 2017-18 election cycle, and the April report is here. For comparison, the … Continue reading

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We’ll have a much better idea of who the candidates are soon

There are a lot of people filing to run for Congress as Democrats. It remains to be seen how many of them are viable. Three times as many Democrats have already filed to run for Congress in Texas this year … Continue reading

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April 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

It’s April, and that means it’s time once again to review campaign finance reports for Congressional candidates. The January roundup is here, which closed out the 2017-18 election cycle; these reports are the first ones for the 2019-20 cycle. A … Continue reading

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One more for CD24

Another contested primary. Democrat Candace Valenzuela, a 34-year-old Carrollton-Farmers Branch school board member, is launching a campaign Monday against Texas GOP Rep. Kenny Marchant, one of the party’s top targets in 2020. She will face an uphill battle for her … Continue reading

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Using Beto 2018 to project Beto 2020

The NYT recently took a deep dive into the 2018 election data from Texas, and came out seeing a real swing state, partly because of Beto and partly for other reasons. Mr. O’Rourke’s close result wasn’t because of an exceptional … Continue reading

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Here comes the DCCC

National Dems really are serious about competing in Texas next year. National Democrats are ratcheting up their Texas offensive yet again ahead of 2020. The chairwoman of U.S. House Democratic campaign arm announced Tuesday morning that her committee will open … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: 2018 Congress

The 2018 Congressional races were the most expensive, the most hotly and broadly contested, and by far the most attention-grabbing races in the non-Beto division. We hadn’t seen anything remotely like it since the 2004 DeLay re-redistricting year, but we … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Just a reminder, Will Hurd is still a Republican

That means he does Republican things. Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd said he would vote for Donald Trump in 2020 over his friend, former Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, should he decide to run and win the Democratic Party’s nomination. … Continue reading

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January 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

We come to the last of our January finance report roundups. The next one will be in April, for Congressional candidates, which will be our first indicator of who among the repeaters and the newcomers has gotten off to a … Continue reading

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More looking forward to 2020

Gonna have some more of that sweet Congressional election action. Smelling blood after picking up two Texas congressional seats in November – along with Beto O’Rourke’s narrow loss in the U.S. Senate race – House Democrats [recently] announced six new … Continue reading

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There sure was a lot of money spent on Congressional races in Texas

If we’re lucky, it will be the start of a trend. Never has Texas seen as much money spent on Congressional campaigns as it did in 2018. New campaign finance data shows that the state didn’t just beat its old … Continue reading

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2020 is starting early

Example One: The calendar just turned to 2019, but the 2020 race for Congressional seats in Texas is already on. A few days after Christmas, San Antonio resident Liz Wahl, 33, a former cable television news anchor, filed papers in … Continue reading

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More Congressional retirement speculation

From Roll Call: Life in the minority will be a new experience for most House Republicans next year. And many of them may not remember what happened the last time the GOP lost the House. After the 2006 Democratic wave, … Continue reading

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Pete Sessions’ fine whine

There ain’t enough cheese in the entire state of Wisconsin to accompany this. Rep. Pete Sessions’ campaign might be over. But he isn’t over it. The Dallas Republican is still smoldering about the circumstances that led to his decisive loss … Continue reading

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The next round of redistricting is going to be even more fun

Close races do complicate things. Texas Republicans collected half of the votes statewide in congressional races this month. ­But even after Democrats flipped two districts, toppling GOP veterans in Dallas and Houston, Republicans will control 23 of the state’s 36 … Continue reading

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Initial thoughts: Congress

I’ll be honest: I never felt particularly confident about winning CD07 or CD32. Not because Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred weren’t excellent candidates, or anything to do with the trends of the national environment or what have you. I just … Continue reading

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Omnibus election report

It’s after midnight, I’ve mostly posted stuff on my long-dormant Twitter account (@kuff), and I will have many, many thoughts in the coming days. For now, a brief recap. – As you know, neither Beto nor any other Dem won … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 13 Comments

Change Research: Cruz 49, O’Rourke 49

Make of this what you will. In Texas (n=1211), Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz are dead even: O’Rourke is at 49%, Cruz is at 49%, and Libertarian Neil Dikeman is at 1%. We’ve polled a lot in Texas the past … Continue reading

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