Tag Archives: precinct analysis

Precinct analysis: Appellate courts, part 1

Posted on December 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions My next two posts in this series will focus on the 1st and 14th Courts of Appeals. These courts are a little strange … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Other jurisdictions

Posted on December 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial You may be wondering “Hey, how come you haven’t reported on data from SBOE and State Senate districts?” Well, I’ll tell you, since the SBOE … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Statewide judicial

Posted on December 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 We’re going to take a look at the seven statewide judicial races in this post, with all of the districts considered so far grouped together. You’re about … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Comparing to 2012 and 2016

Posted on December 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts I had meant to get to this last week, but SeditionPalooza took up too much of my time, so here we are. The intent of this post is to compare vote … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Commissioners Court and JP/Constable precincts

Posted on December 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts We now zoom in for a look at various county districts, which are also called “precincts”. I don’t know why we have County Commissioner precincts and JP/Constable precincts to go along with regular voting … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: State Rep districts

Posted on December 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts We move now to State Rep districts, which is my usual currency since they provide complete coverage of the county with no partial pieces. You can also get a much more nuanced view of how things have … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Congressional districts

Posted on December 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction All right, let’s get this party started. In the past I’ve generally done the top races by themselves, but any race involving Trump provides challenges, because his level of support just varies in comparison to other Republicans depending on … Continue reading →

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2020 precinct analysis: Introduction and overview

Posted on December 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

So I finally got a full canvass of the 2020 election in a nice and convenient spreadsheet form. I spent a fair amount of the Thanksgiving week doing what I usually do with it, to generate totals for all of … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part seven: West Texas

Posted on December 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar Part 5 – East Texas Part 6 – Central Texas Last entry in this series, and … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part six: Central Texas

Posted on December 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar Part 5 – East Texas We move on now to counties in Central Texas, which for … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part five: East Texas

Posted on December 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar The next three entries in this series will look at regions, and counties of interest within … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part four: Around Bexar

Posted on November 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Pop quiz, hotshot: Close your eyes, or cover the table below, and name for me the seven counties that border Bexar. Go … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part three: Around Travis

Posted on November 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Travis County has been at the forefront of the Democratic renaissance in Texas, punching well above its weight with both performance and turnout. Its blue essence has been … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part two: Around the Metroplex

Posted on November 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Dallas and Tarrant Counties are two big squares right next to each other, so I’m combining them into one post. County Romney Obama Trump Clinton Trump Biden Shift ========================================================================= Collin 196,888 101,415 201,014 140,624 … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part one: Around Harris

Posted on November 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

There’s been so much focus in the past couple of years about the suburbs and how their traditional voting patterns have changed. I wanted to use the election results we have to take a closer look at what that means. … Continue reading →

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So how did my simple projection work out?

Posted on November 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Remember this? I divided the counties up by how much their voter rolls had grown or shrunk since 2012, then used the 2016 turnout levels and 2018 results to project final numbers for the Presidential election in 2020. Now that … Continue reading →

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More early data from State Rep districts

Posted on November 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Derek Ryan on Twitter: . President Trump won House District 74, a Democrat-held district in West Texas along the border, with 53.1%. He also won House District 31, a Democrat-held district in South Texas with 56.2%. — Derek Ryan … Continue reading →

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It’s a range, not a number

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t have full canvass data yet, but as I have said, I have Presidential data courtesy of Greg Wythe. Here are a couple of districts of interest: Dist Biden Trump Biden% Trump% ========================================= CD02 170,707 178,840 48.1% 50.0% CD07 … Continue reading →

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A first response to the Latino voting (and polling) question

Posted on November 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

For your consideration: . Fixating on Zapata County and saying Dems have a Latino problem in Texas is inaccurate. The reality is Latino voter participation broke records and expanded the democratic vote margins in the state. #Texas #LatinoVote Thread 1/5 … Continue reading →

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A few observations from the final unofficial countywide data

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is still unofficial, and there will still be some overseas/military ballots to be counted as well as some provisional ballots to be cured, but the count of the votes cast by Election Day is over, and we have the … Continue reading →

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CD31 poll: Carter 43, Imam 37

Posted on September 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Another interesting Congressional race poll. With less than two months to go until Election Day, an increasing number of eyes are looking toward Texas, where Republicans are fighting to keep their grip on the once-reliably conservative state. There is perhaps … Continue reading →

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CD21 poll: Davis 48, Roy 47

Posted on September 13, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Second poll in this district. Between August 31 and September 4, Garin-Hart-Yang interviewed a representative sample of 401 likely general election voters in Texas-21st CD. The survey, which was conducted on both landlines and cell phones, was fully representative of … Continue reading →

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Poll: Michael Moore claims large lead in Commissioners Court race

Posted on September 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Keir Murray: Like Dallas County did over a decade ago, Harris County Commissioners Court poised to flip from 4-1 Republican to 4-1 Democrat in just two election cycles. @mmooretx strongly positioned to win Pct. 3. Trump trailing by 14 … Continue reading →

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A very simple projection of the November vote

Posted on August 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In my earlier post about the current state of voter registrations, I noted that you could see the county-by-county totals in the contest details for the Senate runoff. What that also means is that if you have current (till now, … Continue reading →

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Primary precinct analysis: Where a man can still win

Posted on May 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

As previously discussed, female candidates in Democratic judicial primaries kicked a whole lot of ass this year. The four statewide races that featured one female candidates against one male candidate were shockingly not close – Amy Clark Meachum and Tina … Continue reading →

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Primary precinct analysis: Who did what in the RRC race

Posted on March 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Railroad Commissioner primary was a bit like the Senate primary – multiple candidates (though not nearly as many), not a whole lot of money, but the candidate who did best in fundraising was also the leading votegetter. Here’s a … Continue reading →

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Primary precinct analysis: Everyone did something in the Senate primary

Posted on March 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

So while we wait for actual precinct data from the primary, I thought I’d take a look at some county-level data from the non-Presidential races, as they have the county-by-county breakdown on the SOS election night pages. The US Senate … Continue reading →

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What is “safe”?

Posted on February 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Saw this on Twitter, and it got me thinking: For those upset about critique of establishment politics: There are D reps in SAFE blue seats who side w/ the NRA, are anti-LGBT+, and yet are protected because they advance the … Continue reading →

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Chron overview of HD134

Posted on January 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Is this the year Sarah Davis loses? That’s the question. The March primaries are weeks away, but the first question at a recent forum for the three Democrats running to unseat state Rep. Sarah Davis centered on November: “How do … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2019 HD148 special election

Posted on December 29, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I started this post while doing other precinct analysis stuff. Didn’t finish it with the others, but now that the legislative special election runoffs are next up on the calendar, I thought I’d finish it off. First, here’s how the … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2019 Metro referendum

Posted on December 8, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The one election of interest within Harris County that wasn’t mostly or entirely within Houston was the Metro referendum. Let’s have a look at how that vote went. Dist Yes No ==================== A 18,795 10,648 B 15,120 4,037 C 32,384 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2019 Controller

Posted on December 7, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Back to the precinct data. This one’s easy, as there are only two candidates. Dist Sanchez Brown ==================== A 8,771 7,059 B 4,507 10,779 C 17,652 21,540 D 7,391 15,225 E 14,505 10,672 F 4,798 4,559 G 18,093 13,451 H … Continue reading →

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Chron overview of the At Large #2 runoff

Posted on December 1, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

This one’s a rerun. City Councilman David W. Robinson and the Rev. Willie R. Davis last faced off for the At-Large 2 seat in 2015, with Robinson winning by 10 percentage points and taking on his second term. Four years … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2019 At Large #5

Posted on November 27, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Our last At Large race, and another one with many candidates. There wasn’t a clear division among the nine contestants here, so I’m presenting them all. Dist Batteau Garcia Flowers Dick Rivera Bonton Alcorn Woods McNeese ============================================================================ A 654 955 … Continue reading →

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