Houtopia has the best news I've heard this week.
Word is, the Dallas Morning News will report tomorrow on a statewide poll conducted by Brian Epstein for Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. The poll will show Rick Perry is in deep trouble -- garnering just 32% support of those sampled -- with Chris Bell nipping at his heels at 27%, Carole Strayhorn trailing with 20%, and Kinky Friedman cratering in single digits. This is huge news, folks.
The most important number in the Governor's race (to us) has always been Rick Perry's. We figured that if Perry looked vulnerable down the stretch, the anti-guv vote would begin to coalesce around a single candidate. We also figured that candidate was likely to be Bell, considering he has a solid base of about one-third of the electorate. Well, Perry's in deep doo-doo. If he runs at 32% on Election Day he will likely be retired from his current position.
Not unrelated, there was also word flying around late this afternoon that uber-trial lawyer John O'Quinn has pumped another $2 million into the Bell campaign. This flamboyant, successful attorney is serving as a one-man IV for Team Bell. Can you imagine the kingmaker's bragging rights if his bet pays off?
Finally, Governor Perry has apparently bought a staggering $6 million worth of television for the final two weeks. Question: since apparently no one has been buying his message these last few months, why will things be any different now? Perry obviously senses he is in danger of losing this election. Look for him to go savagely negative against Bell.
Wow. A poll conducted on behalf of Kay Bailey Hutchison, meaning even Paul Burka will have to accept that it might possibly be valid. Combine that with the just-released SurveyUSA poll that has Perry at 36 and Bell at 26, plus the WSJ/Zogby poll that pegged it at 37.5/26.2, and we've got ourselves a race. How about that? Time to update that Governor forecast, fellas.
One thing to keep in mind: As Houtopia points out, Perry's recent ad buys have not really improved his numbers much. I believe that he may have a hard time depressing Bell's numbers, even with an astounding $6 million buy (as I understand it, one million is enough for a week's worth of ads statewide, so that's a triple-decker two-week block). Perry's problem isn't swing voters. They're already supporting Strayhorn and Friedman. What Bell has, what he has always needed to have, is the core Democratic constituency. How likely are they to run away now, in the face of a full-bore slime attack by Perry? I'd say it's at least as possible that this fires them up.
Remember what that Chron story today said:
In the current race, Bell's campaign is counting on getting a very basic Democratic turnout. The Democrat who did the worst statewide in 2002 got 1.4 million votes, or 33 percent of the turnout. If Bell could match that, his campaign believes it would put him in the running to dislodge Perry in a five-way race.
UPDATE: I don't see anything in the DMN this morning, so who knows? Stay tuned.
UPDATE: Unfortunately, it seems I posted too soon. This poll apparently did not take place. See this later post for details. My apologies for the confusion.
Posted by Charles Kuffner on October 24, 2006 to Election 2006 | TrackBack