October 03, 2007
Two more hurricanes

One feature of early October that I think we're all paying more attention to these days is the revised hurricane forecast for the rest of the season.

Hurricane expert William Gray slightly downgraded his forecast today, calling for four named storms in October and November, including two hurricanes, one of them major.

Gray's team at Colorado State University had predicted five named storms in their earlier forecast for the two months.

"We expect October-November to be very active," said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the hurricane forecast.

In April, Gray had predicted a "very active" 2007 season, with 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, with five of them major hurricanes.

As of Oct. 1, a total of 13 named storms had developed, including four hurricanes. Two of the hurricanes were major.

Gray's team revises the forecast throughout the hurricane season, which lasts from June through November.

"August had somewhat above-average activity -- about 130 percent of average -- while September had about average activity -- about 92 percent of average," Klotzbach said.

Eight named storms formed in September in the Atlantic basin, tying a record set in 2002 for the most in that month.

But measured by the combined strength and duration of those storms, this September was actually the least active in the Atlantic since 1997, the National Hurricane Center said. That is because most of the September storms were weak and short lived.

It has been a strange season, hasn't it? Two monster storms, one other that sprang out of nowhere, and a bunch of fizzles. From our perspective in Houston, at least, it certainly could have been worse. I'll still be ready for it to be over.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on October 03, 2007 to Hurricane Katrina