August 27, 2008
Gustav

Yikes.


Gustav swirled toward Cuba today after triggering flooding and landslides that killed at least 22 people in the Caribbean. Its track pointed toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, including Louisiana where Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc three years ago.

Oil prices jumped above $119 a barrel as workers began to evacuate from the offshore rigs responsible for a quarter of U.S. crude production.

"We know it's going to head into the Gulf. After that, we're not sure where it's heading," said Rebecca Waddington, a meteorologist at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. "For that reason, everyone in the Gulf needs to be monitoring the storm. At that point, we're expecting it to be a Category 3 hurricane."

[...]

Friday is the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's strike on Louisiana and Mississippi, and Gustav's tentative track raised the possibility of a Labor Day landfall there. But the average error in five-day forecasts is about 310 miles (500 kms) in either direction, meaning the likeliest targets could be anywhere from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle.

[...]

Gustav is raising concern particularly because there are few surrounding wind currents capable of shearing off the top of the storm and diminishing its power, the hurricane center said. "Combined with the deep warm waters, rapid intensification could occur in a couple of days."


All we can do now is wait and hope for the best. I suspect no one is going to be snarking about the hurricane forecasters overestimating the season after this.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on August 27, 2008 to Hurricane Katrina
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