Too close for comfort

Don't know what I'd do without SciGuy during hurricane season.

So what's Gustav up to, anyway?

For starters, it's now an 80 mph hurricane with a distinct eye and showing signs of further strengthening, as expected. The official forecast track has remained centered upon Louisiana, and has edged only slightly westward, reflecting the most recent model guidance.

Since this afternoon the models have come into somewhat better agreement, with a handful swinging east from Texas and the GFDL coming west from New Orleans. In effect they met in the middle.

Looking at the models now, a lot of them show a southwestern curve that takes Gustav into Texas after plowing into Louisiana. Presumably, it would be a greatly diminished storm by then, at least as far as wind intensity goes, but it could still dump a boatload of rain on areas northeast of here. And it wouldn't take much of a wobble to more directly threaten us as opposed to New Orleans or central Louisiana. So keep those contingency plans - for evacuating or sheltering in place - at hand.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on August 30, 2008 to Hurricane Katrina