September 09, 2008
Not reassuring at all

Let me just say that I could have lived without hearing this.

The bottom line is that the Houston area could face a near worst-case scenario with Ike, although I'd still peg the chances of this happening at one-in-four, or less.

I'm going to go crawl under my desk and whimper now. The rest of you, please carry on.

UPDATE: Still not reassured.

A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas
There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.

If you live in Texas, what are your chances of getting hit?
I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds. At present, NHC is calling for these odds of getting hurricane force winds at various Texas cities:

Brownsville: 8%
Corpus Christi: 8%
Freeport: 10%
Galveston: 9%
Houston: 5%

I think the odds are roughly double what NHC is advertising for the above cities.


Posted by Charles Kuffner on September 09, 2008 to Hurricane Katrina

Sounds like I'm coming back just in time to get out. :(

Posted by: Justin on September 9, 2008 5:54 PM

The projected track seems to change every day, sometimes every hour, so apparently they really don't know where it will make landfall which is not good because if it gets close enough to be within 24 hours of landfall and then changes course, there could be a major disaster in Texas or Louisiana. The other concern is apparently how much the storm will intensify once it hits the open Gulf and so if it intensifies and becomes a Category Five it could still be a Category Four or Five when it makes landfall. That of course would wipe out New Orleans if it came in around Grand Isle the way Betsy did and cause major damage in the Galveston and Houston area if it came in around Port O'Connor the way Carla did and we could have another Allison if it came in around Freeport because of the storm surge that would move up Galveston Bay. Obviously they really don't know about this one which makes it all the more potentially disastrous.

Posted by: Baby Snooks on September 9, 2008 6:12 PM

Recover the Evidence of Science from those who ruin it to cast as superior their own religious turned political power used for the irrational purpose of extinction for us all.

With Hand Counted Paper Ballots Recover the Evidence of Democracy from those who ruin it for their own political power and economic gain.

John W. Dean's book, "Conservatives Without Conscience"
What I found provided a personal epiphany. Authoritarian conservatives are, as a researcher told me, "enemies of freedom, antidemocratic, antiequality, highly prejudiced, mean-spirited, power hungry, Machiavellian and amoral." And that's not just his view. To the contrary, this is how these people have consistently described themselves when being anonymously tested, by the tens of thousands over the past several decades.


We cannot be silent while democracy and the climate collapses and endangers all of us.


A Good Start:
Your voices have been heard and your support continues to send a powerful message to lawmakers. That is why I call on you again to help us in a new effort to deliver 1 Million signatures to Speaker Pelosi on September 10, 2008.

With an election right around the corner, isn't this a waste of time?
Shouldn't we just forget about it?

If we allow this administration to 'get away with it', we are openly saying that their type of conduct is permissible in future administrations, which of course would be a disaster for our nation. In reaffirming the rule of law we correct our nation's course away from disaster.

Posted by: Support Science to Reverse Climate Collapse on September 9, 2008 8:30 PM
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