Maybe. Possibly even probably. She’ll let us know on Monday.
Rep. Jasmine Crockett
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Dallas, appears to be inching closer to a U.S. Senate bid, scheduling a “special announcement” for Monday.
Crockett, a second-term representative with a large national social media following, has teased a Senate run for weeks, saying publicly that she was exploring the possibility via polling and that she believed she could do what no Texas Democrat has done in over 30 years — win statewide — by expanding the electorate.
“I am closer to yes than I am no,” she said in an interview with MS NOW, formerly MSNBC, on Sunday.
In one of the clearest signs that she’s leaning toward yes, Crockett told The Dallas Morning News she called both of her prospective primary opponents, former Rep. Colin Allred and state Rep. James Talarico, to discuss the results of polling she had commissioned. The Talarico campaign said he called Crockett over the weekend, but that no polling data was shared; the Crockett campaign said the congresswoman offered to share internal polling but that Talarico didn’t request to see it.
The Crockett campaign has not shared her internal polling publicly or with The Texas Tribune.
Crockett’s entry into the race would scramble what had been a two-man primary to this point, increasing the likelihood that the March 3 primary goes to a runoff. Many Democrats were hoping that their primary could be wrapped up by early March, given that the Republican primary between Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt is likely going to a runoff. Such a scenario would have given the winning Democrat time to raise and spend money in a general election scenario while Republicans continued to fight each other.
Democrats had been trying to both avoid a glut of candidates running for the same office and attempting to organize a slate — Allred, Talarico, Rep. Joaquin Castro and 2018 candidate Beto O’Rourke held a Zoom meeting over the summer, to discuss dividing up the marquee statewide offices between them. But with all interested in U.S. Senate, an attractive race given there is a competitive Republican primary, no agreement was ever reached, and Allred launched his campaign shortly after.
With little time left until the Dec. 8 filing deadline, Crockett also said on MS NOW she wanted to organize a slate of Democrats with different electoral strengths.
“We also need to make sure we have, what I consider to be, a strong slate — people that can also raise money, people that also have different groups of people that are attracted to them,” Crockett said, adding that she is the leading candidate among Black and brown voters.
“Instead of relying on one person to kind of carry the load, what type of ticket [can we run?]” she said on MS NOW. “So I’ve actually been talking to other candidates, potential candidates, as well, trying to recruit them.”
Democratic state legislators are already running for the other statewide positions, and getting candidates to shift gears before Monday’s filing deadline would be challenging.
Matt Angle, a Democratic operative and founder of the Lone Star Project, said the upside for Democrats is that the candidate that emerges from the primary will have been well-tested. But he lamented that they were not able to work out a slate where the strongest Democrats could run together instead of against each other.
“Assuming that Congresswoman Crockett gets in, it means next fall, two of our best communicators are going to be on the sidelines, not seeking office,” Angle said. “That’s frustrating.
“This is a year in which I think there’s more opportunities, Republicans are more vulnerable in Texas than they’ve been in a while,” Angle continued. “And so you hate that we’ve got our best candidates running against each other.”
To add onto what Matt Angle says, Rep. Crockett is a proven fundraiser, and would start out with a significant amount of cash on hand. I don’t know if having her in the Senate primary along with Talarico and Allred would have the effect of diverting cash from other candidates and races into that contest – I don’t know if such an effect exists, I’m just speculating. It could have the opposite effect, or it could be meaningless, who knows. I’m a likely Talarico voter at this point, and I can’t say that her entry would change my mind, so my reaction to this is less of excitement and more of caution. I also can’t say that I represent even a plurality of Dem primary voters, so take that for what it’s worth.
What I want more than anything is a candidate who has the best shot at winning. Right now I think that’s Talarico, but I don’t know anything more than anyone else as far as that goes. I share Matt Angle’s worry about concentrating so much top talent in one race – remember, I originally wanted Talarico to run for Governor – but here we are, maybe. We could have women running for all three top offices if she runs, so there’s that. I’m going to spend the rest of the filing period trying not to think too much about it. Lone Star Left, which has its own concerns, has more.