From The Downballot:
Rep. Jasmine Crockett
The National Republican Senatorial Committee waged what one unnamed operative called an “AstroTurf recruitment process” to convince Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett to run for the Senate, NOTUS’ Reese Gorman reports.
This effort began this summer when the NRSC circulated surveys showing Crockett, whom pollsters had not previously tested, performing well in a hypothetical primary. Gorman adds that Republicans, who are convinced Crockett would be the easiest candidate to defeat, also quietly sent out calls and text messages to Democratic voters in Texas, urging them to contact the congresswoman and ask her to run.
The Republican incumbent that Crockett is now trying to replace, by contrast, openly urged her to take him on.
“Run Jasmine, run!” Sen. John Cornyn tweeted in July after an unknown person registered a pair of “Crockett for Senate” domain names. (Crockett’s team may not have been involved in those purchases, as neither link is currently in use.)
Cornyn reupped that call in October after the congresswoman expressed interest in a Senate bid on the Lurie Daniel Favors Show.
“Every other day there’s a poll that comes out that makes it clear that I can win the primary for the U.S. Senate race in Texas,” she said.
Crockett, for her part, told CNN shortly before Thanksgiving that her internal polling showed she could win if she ran, though she never shared any data publicly. She wound up launching her campaign on Monday, just hours before the candidate filing closed.
Read the NOTUS story and see what you think. I can believe that the NRSC hyped, and even generated, polls that showed Rep. Crockett winning the primary. I have a much harder time believing that they were able to get a significant number of people to call her office urging her to run, or that that had any effect. We’ll never know, of course, and if Talarico wins the primary it’ll just be an odd footnote; if Crockett goes on to win next November it’ll be the 21st century version of “Dewey Defeats Truman”.
What it might be, more than anything, is some fuel for Crockett herself.
TM: Would you rather run against John Cornyn or Ken Paxton?
Crockett: It doesn’t matter who it is. I’m gonna win.
That’s from an interview Texas Monthly just did with her, which you should read (you may have to give them your email address to get full access). I do appreciate the confidence. Now let’s see how the primary goes.
(Yes, I know there’s a new poll showing Crockett up eight points on Talarico. I’m generally leery of primary polls since it’s tricky to model the electorate, so I likely won’t write about individual polls as we go, unless they also include general election matchups. But I will keep track of them.)