Rep. Gina Hinojosa
State Rep. Gina Hinojosa has a commanding lead in the race to challenge Gov. Greg Abbott, according to the most recent polling of the crowded Democratic primary contest.
The Austin Democrat, who has served in the state House since 2017, drew 41% of the likely Democratic voters surveyed by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University.
The next closest candidate in the poll was Andrew White, the son of former Gov. Mark White, who drew just 6%. Former congressman Chris Bell drew 5%, while 6% threw support behind one of the seven other candidates in the race. Most voters, 42%, remained undecided.
The results suggest Hinojosa is the clear front-runner in the race to take on Abbott, who is seeking a record fourth term in office, said pollster Mark P. Jones.
“Hinojosa is in the driver’s seat with a clear pathway to victory in March,” Jones said.
Hinojosa was the only candidate who a majority of voters said they knew enough about to have an opinion, and 53% of them had a favorable view of her, compared to just 4% with an unfavorable view. Jones said that suggests that as more Democratic primary voters learn about her, their opinion is far more likely to be positive than negative, and it will likely be difficult for White and Bell to draw enough support to force a runoff.
“When one adds Hinojosa’s advantages in institutional support from elected officials and influential organizations, as well as her likely advantage in campaign fundraising, her prospects for surpassing the 50% threshold in March and capturing the Democratic nomination without a runoff appear to be quite bright,” Jones said.
The Barbara Jordan Policy Research and Survey Center homepage is here, and I assume that URL will get cleaned up at some point. The poll info is here, and it also includes data about the AG race, in which Joe Jaworski and Nathan Johnson are close together but most voters have not made a choice yet. They did not have any general election matchups, which I hope will be coming soon.
Hinojosa has been the busiest candidate, at least judging by my inbox. It’s hard to imagine anyone who isn’t an established and very well-funded incumbent winning a multi-candidate race like this without a primary, but if this poll is indicative of anything, she might be in that ballpark. Let’s see how she and the others are doing on the fundraising front first.
I’m not going to follow primary polling too closely, but I did want to set the first marker down, so we have something to compare later. I’m a little surprised by this result – she’s a State Rep who wasn’t exceptionally visible before this race, and Andrew White made it to the primary runoff in 2018 – but it’s just one result. I’m looking forward to seeing what other polls say.
I am glad she is beating all those white-guy also rans, but if 53% of Texans know who she is, I will eat my hat. If she wins in November, I will eat two hats.
You must be a republican, because rural voters might vote for one of those white-guy also rans, but won’t vote for Gina Hinojosa or Lupe Valdez or any Latina in the universe.
Doug, not disputing your assertion, here is an interesting breakdown of where voters of various flavors actually reside-
https://www.lonestarleft.com/p/where-are-texas-democrats?publication_id=1220969&post_id=182199657&isFreemail=false&r=l1k74&triedRedirect=true