Houston is not destiny for Fort Worth, according to three University of Houston professors researching the impact Texas taking control of schools has had on enrollment and teachers in the state’s largest city. Who leads can determine whether a takeover triggers an exodus of students and teachers or stabilizes a system under pressure, they said.
Houston’s intervention differs from Fort Worth’s, research scientist Toni Templeton said. The takeover in Houston was prolonged over four years, delayed by lawsuits trying to stop the intervention. Fort Worth’s path has been swift, as the takeover launched in October and the appointment of a superintendent and board of managers is expected in the spring.
“The takeover could be very different in Fort Worth than it is in HISD,” Templeton said.
The researchers’ conclusions are based on a new report examining how Houston ISD’s enrollment and teacher workforce declined during the first two years of state control under Superintendent Mike Miles — a period they say offers early but important signals for districts like Fort Worth that may soon face state oversight.
“A different leader with a different kind of philosophy within the administration might lead to a very different outcome in Fort Worth,” said Blake Heller, a public policy professor.
Houston ISD was already losing students before the state takeover began in 2023, a result of the same factors at play in FWISD such as declining birth rates, people waiting longer to have kids and the affordability of homes.
But the report found those losses accelerated after the state installed a board of managers and appointed Miles as superintendent, increasing from a loss of about 2% annually before the takeover to roughly 3.5% per year afterward.
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Another trend researchers noticed was among schools part of Houston’s New Education System that feature scripted lesson plans and materials. Less autonomous schools saw sharper declines than campuses with greater freedoms, the report shows.
“There are some schools that might really benefit from a heavy hand in turning around a school culture and changing practices that were not driving results for students,” Heller said. “But there are other schools where this type of intervention amounts to kind of messing with a good thing. We don’t want to mess with success.”
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The report also documents major changes to Houston ISD’s teacher workforce following the takeover.
Before state control, the district typically employed fewer than 100 uncertified teachers in a given year. Since then, that number has risen into the thousands, reflecting a shift toward a less experienced and less credentialed workforce, the researchers said.
“If you’re an optimist, you’ll say, ‘Oh, this is a reflection of an innovative approach to staffing and tapping new pools of talent,’” Heller said.
Supporters of Houston ISD’s approach argue that centralized lesson plans and coaching models reduce reliance on teacher experience, the researchers said. But they also noted that decades of education research link teacher certification and experience to student outcomes, particularly in high-need schools.
”If you’re a pessimist, you point at prior research that suggests least certified, least experienced teachers also have the worst results when it comes to student performance,” Heller said.
Houston’s teacher workforce could be a warning sign for Fort Worth, Friedman said.
“One of the things we’re seeing here is that it is possible to effectively run out of certified teachers,” Friedman said. “An intervention that keeps teachers interested in continuing to be part of the district is going to have a very different effect than one that maybe encourages teachers to decide they want a different profession or work in a different place.”
There’s a copy of the report embedded in the story, and you can download it here. This is a much more nuanced and detailed view than what the Chambers of Commerce got when they went and got some Mike Miles-approved tours. I do think the Superintendent that Mike Morath appoints in FWISD will be key to their experience, and also perhaps telling, if that person is a Miles clone or cut from a different mold. I know what I’d be rooting for if I were a FWISD parent. Good luck, y’all.