Time for a roundup, because there’s just so much. I’m going to start with a couple of social media posts that highlight some numbers, and then go on to the many articles I’ve come across. Buckle up.
Dana, there was no split in this election tonight. But you know that. It was the run off from the special election in the fall. And Leigh didn’t pick up a single one of Huffman’s R voters from the special election. November vs. Tonight’s election. ⬇️
— Laney Hawes (@LaneyHawes) 11:47 PM – 31 January 2026
That was from Saturday night. I had no idea how close the vote totals from November and January were. You can’t say that literally no Huffman voter supported Wambsganss in the runoff, but clearly she got no net benefit from them.
Republicans did not lose the TX SD-9 runoff because of low GOP turnout: they lost because almost all of the independents and some of the Republicans voted Dem.
Of those who voted in the TX SD-9 runoff, 50%+ were GOP primary voters or at GOP HH; only 35% were Dems or at Dem HH
— Ross Hunt (@Ross_Hunt) 10:16 AM – 1 February 2026
Was turnout lower than the first round? Yes–~95k votes as opposed to ~119k votes, and probably less than a third what we will see that fall. And the fall electorate IS projected to be at least as GOP as this electorate. But with more independents & independents are the problem
— Ross Hunt (@Ross_Hunt) 10:22 AM – 1 February 2026
This slump in GOP turnout wasn’t good–if 63% of Reps had come back, that would have netted us another 3k+ votes.
But Dem turnout wasn’t exactly surging either–over 50k Dem primary voters stayed home, and new voters made up 19% of Dems who voted, 16% of Reps.
— Ross Hunt (@Ross_Hunt) 10:32 AM – 1 February 2026
At the end of the day, the explanation for happened last night was NOT that Democrats won TX SD-9 because of increased Dem enthusiasm. Rather, it was that Republicans LOST it because of the failure to persuade swing Republicans and right-leaning independents.
— Ross Hunt (@Ross_Hunt) 10:34 AM – 1 February 2026
I keep coming back to this point, but while it is of course vital to maximize Democratic turnout – one of the key issues of the Senate primary right now is which of the two candidates have the better strategy to do that and the greater appeal for it – it is at least as important to attract people who have previously voted Republican. This is the best example from this cycle I can show for that. We can’t tell the story of 2018 without acknowledging the huge swath of Mitt Romney voters who supported Democrats up and down the ballot that year, and who are mostly still voting Democratic now. I am reasonably confident the same will be true for 2026, and frankly the more of it the better.
I’ll add in here a quote I was given by Luke Warford, the head of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund: “Republican voters decided this race, and they chose the Democrat. More than half the electorate came from GOP households, yet Rehmet won by 14 points. He gave Republicans and independents who are skittish on Trump a reason to cross over: reject the extremism, focus on cost of living. If Texas Democrats run campaigns on kitchen-table economics like this and continue to pin Republicans as the party of extremes, November looks very different.”
What Texas Democrats’ Shocking Win Means for the GOP in November
There are some reasons to doubt that Rehmet’s 31-point swing victory perfectly encapsulates the mood of the broader electorate. Historically, low-turnout special elections have favored Democrats in Texas. Moreover, Wambsganss entered the race with years of highly divisive political activism to her name, and she spent the first round of it attacking Huffman as a shill for communist China and a “demonic” force—rhetoric that no doubt made it harder to convert some of his supporters.
Some Texas conservatives have been quick to point out these factors and downplay the result. But Rehmet’s win is also a message about growing discontent with the local far right and the Trump administration, and it shows the power of a labor-focused campaign to transcend partisan boundaries. Maybe Saturday wasn’t a 9.5 on the Richter scale. But is an 8.5 earthquake that much better?
Author Robert Downen wrote the best pre-election story on Taylor Rehmet, and he was out there on Saturday taking a victory lap about it. He’s got a few Bluesky posts that get into the noxious far-right takeover of Tarrant County and he seems to be of the opinion that it hsa finally gone far enough to drive more mainstream Republicans into the arms of a Rehmet. For sure, one of the conclusions I’ve come to about this race is that there seems to be a bit of dim awareness among the more self-aware set that maybe their act has gotten a little stale with the normies. If that really was a factor in this election, it would be huge.
In September 2024, Texas Rep. Ramón Romero was at a fundraiser in Fort Worth for Kamala Harris when he met a young labor leader named Taylor Rehmet.
The Air Force veteran and union machinist told Romero he was mulling a run for public office. A lot of people think about running, Romero recounted telling him, but he offered to help should Rehmet actually file.
The two stayed in touch, and Rehmet decided last summer to run in a special election for a ruby red Texas Senate district in Tarrant County that no Democrat had represented in nearly half a century and that President Donald Trump won by more than 17 points in 2024. When Romero mobilized to help Rehmet court Latino voters — many of them from the same Fort Worth neighborhoods he represents in the House — he saw a serious first-time candidate meeting power brokers, talking to voters on front porches and running a long-shot bid like he could win it.
[…]
Instrumental to Rehmet’s victory was the backing he received from Hispanics, who account for slightly more than one in five eligible voters in the district. One analyst found that Rehmet outperformed Harris, the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, by more than 50 points in some of the largely Hispanic areas of Fort Worth. The remarkable shifts occurred as those voters witnessed immigration agents in recent weeks kill two Americans while trying to carry out the president’s promised mass deportations. And those same voters, some observers noted, believed Trump would help their financial standing more than what he has delivered in his first year in office.
Up against Rehmet was a ferocious campaign fueled by some of the GOP’s biggest heavyweights — Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Trump among them. They backed Wambsganss, who’s set to get a rematch against Rehmet in November for a four-year term, as Rehmet’s victory was only to complete the remaining 11 months in a term Republican Kelly Hancock left to become Texas’ acting comptroller.
“He is a hard worker. People think that you can just win elections. You’re gonna have to really work it, and he did,” Romero, who block-walked for Rehmet, said in an interview Sunday. “I had more Republicans — people calling me saying, ‘I voted for Rehmet.’ ‘I voted for Rehmet.’ ‘Hey, I just want you to know — I voted for Rehmet.’”
Latino voting definitely helped here, and to the extent that’s a harbinger of November it bodes well, especially in four of the redrawn Congressional districts plus CD15. I’ve seen a couple of people equate the recent Congressional redistricting with this race – State Senate districts were drawn once, in 2021, with the data at that time, and are the same as they were then – and I’ve seen some people speculate that Republican incumbents all over the Congressional map are screwed now. While this kind of shift would put more seats in play, remember that most of the districts held by current Republican incumbents were not significantly affected by the mid-decade redraw. Believe me, I wanted them to be put at real risk by that, but they did a distressingly good job of minimizing that risk. Dream all you want about a bluer Texas, but be aware of what the numbers are.
The New Union Leader Turned Texas Senator-Elect
Emily Farris, a professor of political science at TCU, noted on Bluesky that Rehmet’s strategy of leaning into his union background proved successful. “Rehmet is a union president, and this was an unapologetically pro-labor campaign.” His opponent, she noted, was “a Trump endorsed, billionaire backed candidate heavily involved in conservative school board wars.”
The Texas AFL-CIO also feels strongly in the pro-worker message from Rehmet. “This is a huge win for Texas workers,” said Texas AFL-CIO President Leonard Aguilar. “Taylor embodies what it means to be a union leader – working together to address the struggles of real, everyday Texans.”
The contrast between the working class Rehmet and the out-of-touch Wambsganss and her ruthless billionaire backers is surely something Dems will lean in on for November.
Why Democrats’ upset in a Texas state Senate race is a big deal
Democrats have been overperforming in special elections by big margins pretty much ever since President Donald Trump won the 2024 election. But Texas is one of the biggest swings to date.
While Trump won the district by about 17 points in 2024, the Democrat held a 14-point lead with nearly all of the vote counted as of Sunday morning. That’s a roughly 31-point difference, on the margins, and one of the party’s strongest recent special election performances.
By way of comparison, the big Democratic overperformances in congressional races that got lots of attention last year were generally in the high teens and low 20s.
[…]
The race was important enough to earn the involvement of the national committees, top statewide Republicans and even Trump.
Trump posted three times about the race in recent days, in clear hopes of juicing Election-Day turnout for Republicans.
But it didn’t work. In fact, in a pretty rare occurrence these days, Democrats actually did better on special Election Day than in early voting. While Rehmet won early voting 56-44, he won day-of voting 58-42, according to results from Tarrant County.
Trump’s call clearly wasn’t heeded.
Just savor the sweetness of that last bit. Mmmmmmm…
Texas AG Ken Paxton, GOP officials call on Republicans to ‘fight’ for Tarrant County
“We cannot afford to lose what is the most important county in the entire country,” Tarrant County Judge Tim O’Hare told the crowd. “And last night, we got our butts kicked.”
O’Hare was joined at Mercy Culture Church on Feb. 1 by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton; former state senator Don Huffines, who is currently running for the state comptroller’s office; and other GOP candidates.
The county’s top elected official urged attendees to get civically engaged and to elect conservatives, warning that Rehmet’s win would energize voters and financial supporters seeking to elect Democrats in Tarrant County. The event was organized by Mercy Culture’s political nonprofit For Liberty & Justice and was billed as a “night of action.”
“This is the time to stand up and fight, and this is the time that God calls us to rebuild the wall around Jerusalem, and that wall is Tarrant County,” O’Hare said.
Rehmet won with about 57% of the vote, according to unofficial returns from the Tarrant County Elections Office.
Paxton urged those gathered to support candidates like O’Hare in the coming elections to hold the line in the county so Republicans maintain control.
“Do not let Tarrant County fall. Do not let Texas fall. Do not let America fall,” Paxton said. “It’s really up to you.”
I saved the best for last. You can smell the desperation. Have fun, fellas.
UPDATE: And here’s one more, from Bill Scher at Washington Monthly, which identifies property taxes as an issue that perhaps counter-intuitively worked in Rehmet’s favor.