Someone on the Chron editorial board is a big baseball fan, because they go right to stats analogies to endorse James Talarico in the Democratic primary for US Senate.
Rep. James Talarico
If you want to understand why we recommend state Rep. James Talarico in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, you have to remember what it was like to be an Astros fan in 2014.
The team was barreling toward its third straight 100-loss season. Seats were empty. Tickets were cheap. Only the most die-hard supporters were paying attention to the last-ros, disast-ros, best days were in the past-ros.
Fast-forward three years and a Houston Strong crowd packed Minute Maid Park, roaring through a five-hour slugfest as the Astros toppled the Dodgers in Game 5 of the World Series before going on to win the best of seven.
How did a perennial loser become a champion?
That’s a question Texas Democrats should be asking themselves. The party hasn’t won a statewide race in more than a quarter-century.
The answer, at least in baseball: The Astros did whatever it took to win.
They broke with the past. They tore down the roster, invested in young talent, leaned into data, and stopped confusing loyalty with effectiveness.
Democrats should take notes.
Stop running candidates who excite the base but lose in the general. Give up on the illusion that demographics is destiny. Do whatever it takes to secure the narrow plurality required to win in November. And lean into the metrics.
On that topic, the national data is clear: Moderate candidates, if they can make it out of primaries, enjoy a small but notable general election advantage over their more ideological counterparts. And Talarico, 36, is running as an inspiring yet pragmatic reformer. His chief opponent, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, 44, is a prominent member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
They invoke “wins above replacement” in the next paragraph and go from there. The whole thing is a long exercise in the debate that has been going on regarding Talarico and Crockett, which is which one has the better chance to win. That kind of thinking is obviously subject to a lot of motivated reasoning and wishcasting – as the limited poll data we have indicates, there so far is not an easily discernable difference between the two of them. If you already like Talarico – and even as a 2024 Colin Allred apologist, I was ready to vote for Talarico more or less as soon as he entered the race – you will like this endorsement. If you prefer Crockett, you will wail and gnash your teeth as you read it. The Chron was mostly quite impressed with Crockett overall, but the rules say you can only pick one, and the Chron picked Talarico. Will that sway anyone in their vote? I have no idea.
Should I read the piece in the Chronicle? I don’t want to. I am still fuming over their repeated endorsements of Dan Crenshaw because of his social media following.
Anyway, from my view at ground level, the Crockett campaign is tightly run. And the Talarico campaign is messy. We are only in February. If JT wins the primary will they get it together? I don’t know.
Does the Chronicle try to peer thru the looking glass to see how Paxton will smear Talarico and how that will or will not affect turnout in the magical middle?
Didn’t the Astros also cheat?
Karen – The Astros did cheat, yes. I was amused by that mention in the op-ed. Partly because the 2017 Astros were more than good enough to win honestly, and partly because I have no idea what the Chron editorialists were trying to say with that. I hope it was just that the analogy got away from them at the end there, but who knows.
The way I look at these two….One has a more, honest chance of getting into the position, making good arguments, presenting bills, and passing Policy. The other one can continue on in their present role of shitstarter and instigator and feuding with now retired peers.
What is the basis of each candidate’s moral convictions? If it is belief in a mythical being, that seems to me like a less solid foundation. What kind of legislator will each one become as they mature into the role? I can see Talarico adopting a middle of the road stance that angers Democrats like me. I feel like Crockett will also mellow out somewhat, but in a way that is perhaps less confrontational but more effective.