Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett are leading their respective Senate primary races, according to new public polling released Monday, just over a week before the start of early voting on Feb. 17.
In a statewide sample of 550 likely Republican primary voters conducted between Jan. 20 and Jan. 31, Paxton led incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn by 7 percentage points. Across the aisle, a similar poll of 550 likely Democratic primary voters shows Crockett running ahead of state Rep. James Talarico by 8 percentage points. The survey findings are a change from recent polls that found both races to be neck-and-neck.
In both primaries, 12% of respondents said that they were still undecided.
And in hypothetical matchups for the general election, there is “little difference” between the expected performance of a Republican and a Democrat regardless of the candidates, according to the survey conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. While it indicates that Paxton and Cornyn could beat Crockett by 2 percentage points, Paxton could do slightly better than Cornyn if facing Talarico. Between 7% and 8% of likely voters said they were still unsure on how to vote in these cases.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.18 percentage points.
For Republicans, the poll shows Paxton pulling ahead with 38% of the likely primary voters who were surveyed compared to Cornyn’s 31%, after recent polling showed them in a tight competition. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston was in a distant third with 17%.
Paxton would also have a big advantage over both his opponents if the primary race goes to a run-off, according to the survey. In addition, it shows Paxton ahead of Cornyn on all key demographic groups for the Republican primary — except for Latino voters, where the incumbent led by 7 percentage points.
Meanwhile, the survey shows 47% of likely Democratic primary voters intend to support Crockett compared to 39% for Talarico — a marked difference from a recent poll that indicates that they were in dead heat.
See here for more on that other “recent poll” that had Crockett up by one on Talarico. As noted then, we had one poll with Crockett leading, one with Talarico leading, and one that was basically a tie. Now we have two with Crockett leading, and I’m sure we’ll hear from more pollsters soon. The poll’s data is here and its landing page is here.
To summarize the head-to-head matchups:
Paxton 45, Crockett 43
Paxton 46, Talarico 44
Cornyn 45, Crockett 43
Cornyn 44, Talarico 43
Hunt 46, Crockett 43
Hunt 46, Talarico 42
Couple things to note in comparison to the previous UH/Hobby poll. One is that the Republican margins over the Democratic candidates remains essentially the same. That’s despite the fact that the do-over Trump/Harris margin is slightly more favorable to Trump this time – he leads the rematch for 2026 51-43, where it was 49-45 before. The Senate candidates were in the 48-49 range for Republicans and 45-47 for Dems (which then were Talarico and Allred, as that was before Crockett’s entry and Allred’s departure), so the drop in their numbers is a bit weird, but polls are like that sometimes.
The other thing to note is that they also did some favorability numbers: Trump 50-49, Abbott 51-47, JD Vance 50-46, and Ted Cruz 48-50. That’s from a “likely voter” sample, where the others we have seen have been from either adults or registered voters, so they can’t be compared directly. This is a suggestion that less likely voters are dragging Trump and Abbott down, but it’s one data point so don’t lean too hard on it. They have a second result coming shortly that will include more primary and general election matchups, so we’ll see what else there is. The Chron has more.