Christian Menefee
U.S. Rep. Christian Menefee holds a commanding lead over U.S. Rep. Al Green in the Democratic primary for Texas’ 18th Congressional District, according to a new University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll.
The survey, released days before early voting begins Feb. 17 for the March 3 Democratic primary, offers one of the first detailed snapshots of the race under newly redrawn congressional boundaries that have significantly reshaped the Houston-area district.
The poll of 1,000 likely Democratic primary voters shows Menefee leading Green 52% to 28%, with former Houston City Council Member Amanda Edwards, who recently suspended her campaign, at 9% and Gretchen Brown at 1%. Ten percent of voters remain undecided. The survey was conducted Feb. 3–8.
The results point to the impact of the mid-decade redistricting carried out by the Texas Legislature last summer — changes that political analysts say are central to understanding the race’s trajectory.
Nearly two-thirds of likely Democratic primary voters in the redrawn 18th District previously lived in the old 9th Congressional District, which Green has represented for two decades. Another 28% lived in the old 18th District, which Menefee now represents after winning a special election earlier this month.
Among voters in the old 9th Congressional District, Menefee’s lead narrows to 43% to 36%. But among voters from the old 18th District, Menefee leads 70% to 13%.
Michael Adams, a political scientist at Texas Southern University, said the race is less about personality and more about geography.
“This race is really a story about how redistricting reshifts political competition in the Houston area,” Adams said. “The backdrop has to start with mid-decade redistricting.”
Adams said Menefee’s recent special election victory have also given him structural advantages.
“The special election sort of took him over the top,” Adams said.
While Green retains a base of support among voters from his former district, Adams said closing a 24-point gap would be difficult absent a major shift.
“Polls are only a snapshot,” Adams said. “But given this lead, it would take something significant to change the trajectory.”
The poll homepage is here, the media release is here, and the poll report is here. The usual caveats apply – this is one poll, polling primaries is hard, and so on. I do think Prof. Adams is correct that the visibility of the special election and runoff helps Menefee, but I’ll admit to being a little surprised by this result. My assumption is that this will be a close race and a tough fight, but who knows. For what it’s worth, the one poll result from the CD18 special election runoff had Menefee leading 43-30 (the poll was conducted by Lake Research Partners; the UH/Hobby Center did a poll in July for the November race but as far as I know didn’t poll the runoff), which as we know greatly undershot his level of support. So perhaps my close-race framing is inaccurate.
There were also polls done in two other contested Dem Congressional primaries. In CD29, Rep. Sylvia Garcia has a significant but perhaps not overwhelming 46-27 lead over Jarvis Johnson, with 2% for Robert Slater and 25% unsure. In CD09, the leader by far was “unsure”, with 61%. Leticia Gutierrez had a big lead among the actual candidates, with 24%; Terry Virts and Earnest Clayton each had 5% and no one else topped 2%. I’d call that a good but not definitive result for Rep. Garcia and I’d advise everyone in CD09 to spend some money and get their names out there.