We are eight days into early voting, past both of the Mondays that made daily comparisons to past elections a challenge, and you know what? It doesn’t matter anymore, because the early vote total in Harris County so far is now far greater than the final EV totals from either 2018 or 2022, and are on pace to shoot past the final overall vote totals before the end. So I’m just going to give you a comparison with those final totals and go from there.
Here are the final daily EV reports for the 2022 and 2018 primaries. And here are the final turnout numbers:
2022 turnout:
2018 turnout:
Here’s the Day Eight EV report for this year, and the comparisons:
Year Mail Early Total
=====================================
2018 Dem 16,532 52,344 68,876
2018 GOP 18,848 47,298 66,146
2022 Dem 13,713 82,342 96,055
2022 GOP 9,684 96,439 106,123
2026 Dem 5,551 114,729 120,280
2026 GOP 3,245 68,910 72,155
Dems still have about 13K outstanding mail ballots, while the GOP has about 6K. Forty-nine percent of Dem voters had voted in zero or one of the last three Dem primaries. About 36 percent were under fifty years old. Fifty-nine percent were women (latter three stats courtesy of Erik Vidor’s analysis as of Sunday’s vote; Levi Asher’s dashboard has more details).
That’s what I’ve got for now. KUT spoke to a few early voters about what is motivating them to the polls. Chris Tackett has more Tarrant County numbers. I’ll be back with more as I get it. Have you voted yet?
Voted Saturday, no line.
Some of my friends told me they will do early voting this week, as opposed to Election Day, because they have concerns about bad actors stirring up trouble in the Blue precincts.
I’m a little surprised the turnout in 2022 was as good as it was. There was no US Senate race and Beto O’Rourke won the nomination with over 90% of the vote. It was Biden’s midterm election, which would further dampen enthusiasm.
2018 was the blue wave, but that didn’t seem to apply to the primary turnout. It had Beto O’Rourke for US Senate in a runaway. It had the less inspiring Lupe Valdez vs. Andrew White race for governor. I suppose those explain the lower turnout then. The highest profile Harris County race was CD 7 with Lizzie Fletcher and three other viable candidates. IIRC, the 2018 Dem Primary was still a massive increase over 2014.
Maybe more people are starting to realize the importance of voting in primaries?
Flypusher–I would be interested in more detail of the conspiracy theory about someone will be causing chaos on election day. Since both parties are holding primaries at the same locations this year, and anyone can vote at any location in the county, it would seem hard to pull off. Is the fear that ICE will be stationed in front of the polls and scare away voters? or that supporters of Crockett will block folks from voting who don’t back her? or conversely Talarico supporters doing so?
Republicans are in denial and shellshock regarding the early voting numbers in Harris County. Some observers insist that GOP voters are waiting to vote on election day and that primary day voting will even out the totals. I seriously doubt that.