Here’s another Derek Ryan update.
Turnout Comparison
Based on the data I have, here is where things stand:
-747,153 people have voted in the Republican Primary (4.0% of all registered voters).
-865,385 people have voted in the Democratic Primary (4.6% of all registered voters).If you look at page two of the reports linked below, you can see where those numbers compare to previous election cycles. In the Democratic Primary, more people have voted in eight days than voted in the entirety of early voting in 2022 (855,385 vs. 620,107 early voters in 2022).
Projections
When looking at the last three primaries (2020, 2022, and 2024), eight days of early voting historically accounts for 29% of all votes cast. If the same is true this year, we are looking at some record breaking turnout numbers for both parties. Based on the total votes cast thus far and assuming it is 29% of the final total, we would see the following vote totals:
-2,550,010 votes cast in the Republican Primary.
-2,963,647 votes cast in the Democratic Primary.I have mentioned before that using historical daily percentages and early vs Election Day percentages to project totals for this year isn’t always a good idea. There are too many variables that can change from cycle to cycle. For example:
1. If voters who have voted on Election Day in the past decided to vote early this year, the 29% number I use could be too low, meaning the current total would actually account for a larger share of all the votes that get cast this year.
2. If voters who have voted early in the past have decided to wait until Election Day to vote this year, the 29% number would be high.I still think it’s a useful barometer but I kind of feel like point #1 is more in play than #2 and here’s why.
Voting Method (2026 vs 2024)
A few people have asked if the Democrats are at such high numbers because they are burning through voters who have voted on Election Day in the past. That was a good question. I decided to check the data. Of just the voters in the Democratic Primary who also voted in the 2024 primary…
-70.8% voted early/by mail in 2024.
-29.2% voted on Election Day in 2024.That’s 122,307 votes which have shifted from the Election Day column in 2024 to the early/mail column this year.
When I do the same exercise on Republican Primary voters, of those who also voted in 2024…
-77.3% voted early/by mail in 2024.
-22.7% voted on Election Day in 2024.That’s 127,297 votes which have shifted from the Election Day column to the early/mail column.
I was actually surprised by the Republican numbers. Many people have discussed how Republicans are shifting from being early voters to being Election Day voters (myself included). I wasn’t as surprised by the numbers on the Democratic side. As I have said before, there seems to be a little bit higher energy level amongst Democrats this year.
The Current got a couple of poli sci profs to talk about the energy and turnout levels.
But does the trend bode well for the general, or are Democrats premature to celebrate?
“[T]here’s definitely cause for celebration,” Southern Methodist University political scientist Cal Jillson said. “Usually, the Republican primary turnout is larger than the Democratic primary turnout. But, this time, Democrats have 90,000 more votes in the bank than Republicans do.”
Since speaking with Jillson Tuesday morning, that chasm has widened to 112,000 votes and counting.
What’s more, Jillson pointed out that a sizable portion of Democratic turnout is comprised of people who don’t normally vote blue.
“For example, 92% of the votes cast in the Republican primary were cast by people who always vote Republican, whereas only 65% of votes cast in the Democratic primary are by longtime Democrats,” Jillson said. “The rest are cast by people who go back and forth — sometimes vote Republican, sometimes vote Democrat — and people who have never voted before or only vote in general elections.”
Democrats are also outperforming Republicans in certain conservative pockets of Bexar County, according to Jon Taylor, who chairs UT-San Antonio’s political science department. Polling sites in traditional GOP strongholds on the North Side, such as Encino Branch Library, Parman Library and Shavano Park, are seeing more Democrats voting than Republicans.
Taken together, are all those factors adding up to a blue wave? Possibly.
[…]
As Taylor cautioned, the general is an entirely different animal, and it remains to be seen whether the blue wave will be a tsunami or a ripple.
“I’m cynical enough to say I’ll believe it when I see it,” Taylor said. “Don’t think just because you see voter enthusiasm in a primary that it will carry over to a general election. There are so many factors in play. Texas is still a default red state.”
[…]
And the course might correct to a degree by the time the general comes along, Jillson added, especially if Republicans see a need to defend their statewide power from a blue insurgency.
“As we get through the primaries and into the general election, I expect this to even out a little bit, because one party never gets to be energized by itself,” Jillson said. “Because the other party sees that energy and knows that unless they step up, they’re going to lose the election badly. And so they — the Republicans, in this case — would step up, if only in self defense.”
“I do expect 2026 to be a good Democrat year in Texas, and across the country,” he added. “But it won’t be uncontested. Republicans will find their voice and turn out in larger numbers than they seem to be turning out in this primary in Texas.”
Take that as a reminder that Republicans also set turnout records for themselves in 2018. It’s why they managed to hang on. If this year is different it will be in part because they didn’t manage to crank it up enough, like they did before.
Both Taylor and Jillson cite the Democratic primary for US Senate as a big driver of turnout for Dems, an opinion you’ll see in other places as well. Of course, Republicans also have a big, expensive, high-stakes and high-profile primary for US Senate, and so far it hasn’t generated the same level of turnout. I don’t see that get mentioned nearly as much.
The enthusiasm gap at the national level.
Republicans are in for a world of hurt in November, and a new poll released Wednesday by ABC News and the Washington Post tells us why.
Democrats hold a massive edge in the enthusiasm gap—a measure of how motivated members of each major political party are—with 79% of Democrats saying they are “absolutely certain” to vote as opposed to 65% of Republicans who say the same, according to the poll.
That 14-point spread is the biggest enthusiasm gap the ABC News/Washington Post poll has recorded since 2006, which consequently was another massive Democratic wave in which Republicans lost both their House and Senate majorities
The same poll showed that Democrats have a massive advantage in the generic ballot—which asks respondents which party they want to see control Congress—among voters who say they are “absolutely certain” to vote. Among those voters, Democrats hold an 11-point lead—a number that would swamp the GOP in not only the House but the Senate, too.
The national environment very much affects what happens in Texas. We’ve been on both sides of that. I’ll say again, if Trump’s approval numbers start to dip below 35 – we’ve seen ratings down at 36 and 37, so this is not a stretch – who knows how bad it could be for them.
Going back to yesterday’s post, I’m just comparing the daily numbers now to the final ones from 2018 and 2022. Here are the final daily EV reports for the 2022 and 2018 primaries. And here are the final turnout numbers:
2022 turnout:
2018 turnout:
Here’s the Day Nine EV report for this year, and the comparisons:
Year Mail Early Total
=====================================
2018 Dem 16,532 52,344 68,876
2018 GOP 18,848 47,298 66,146
2022 Dem 13,713 82,342 96,055
2022 GOP 9,684 96,439 106,123
2026 Dem 5,992 134,193 140,185
2026 GOP 3,489 81,358 84,847
The share of voters with little or no Dem primary voting history is almost fifty percent as of the Tuesday totals, up a bit more from Monday. The no-primary-history voters – 31,515 of them through Tuesday – are mostly young, with 31% being under 35 and 60% being under 50. I don’t know how many are new to Harris County, new to being registered, or new to voting. But that’s a lot of new Dem primary voters, and we’re not done yet. I voted yesterday, how about you?