I have three things to say about this.
Rep. Jasmine Crockett
The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate is closing with a fierce debate that has animated it from the start: Who would Republicans rather face in November?
The leading candidates, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin, have each pitched voters on the idea that they are a better bet for November. Crockett has vowed to turn out new voters to finally flip the state, while Talarico has advocated a broader strategy that includes reaching out to Republicans.
Some Republicans have signaled they would rather face Crockett — and Talarico’s side wants voters to know it.
A pro-Talarico super PAC is running ads online in the final days of Tuesday’s primary warning that Republicans are “boosting” Crockett and “spending thousands of dollars to make sure that Jasmine Crockett gets elected.” The ads link to a report about how a conservative group has sent out texts highlighting Crockett’s hard line against ICE and how Gov. Greg Abbott has featured her prominently in ads.
Crockett has scoffed at the GOP meddling narrative, questioning why Republicans would be so clear about a preference, and has urged Democrats to tune out the GOP messaging.
“They love to kind of stir us up and have us decide to play off their rhetoric,” she told CNN last week, drawing a parallel to Republicans who egged on Democrats in the 2024 election to abandon President Joe Biden. “Democrats need to focus on the prize.”
Rep. James Talarico
Talarico has denounced the GOP interference in the Democratic primary.
“I would tell every Republican elected official to stay out of our business and stay out of our primary,” Talarico told a Dallas TV reporter last week when asked about Abbott’s ads featuring Crockett.
The back and forth over GOP meddling gets at a broader debate in the primary about who is better positioned to win a Senate election for Texas Democrats for the first time since 1988. The party is optimistic given the national political environment and the potential that Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has a history of scandals, could emerge as the GOP nominee as he takes on longtime incumbent John Cornyn.
Cornyn has called Crockett’s candidacy a “gift” and warned that Talarico could be “dangerous” as his party’s nominee.
Paxton said Monday he does not have a preference between Crockett and Talarico. “They’re both so liberal,” Paxton told Dallas radio host Mark Davis.
Independent polling has painted an inconclusive picture about which Democratic candidate would be more competitive in November. A University of Houston survey in late January tested an array of potential general election matchups between Crockett or Talarico and GOP candidates — and showed no one had a decisive advantage.
1. That last point above is key. We don’t have much general election polling, but what we do have has not shown any difference in how either Dem candidate performs against any of the possible Republicans. Now, none of this is remotely conclusive – there just aren’t enough data points so far. It may be that over time there could be an effect. That’s the same as saying that over the course of the rest of the election season, a sustained multi-million dollar attack on one candidate or the other could affect their standing in the race. Both candidates can interpret the Republican rhetoric and ad buys in whatever way they think will be favorable to themselves. In the short term, which is to say the outcome of this primary, I don’t think it adds up to much.
2. If the goal was to drive Republican voters over to the Democratic primary to help tilt the scales for Crockett, again at this time there’s little evidence to suggest there’s much to it. As of the waning days of early voting, the percentage of Dem primary voters with an all-Republican primary voting history remains low, similar to what we normally see in ordinary primary years. Given the number of Democrats voting, it would take an enormous Republican crossover surge to move the needle. That might be a hard sell when they have their own Senate race to sort out, not to mention a bunch of Congressional and other contested primaries.
3. Whatever happens, and for whatever the reason it happens, once we know who the candidate is it’s our job to support them 100%, regardless of whether they were our first choice or not. We do not have the luxury of marinating in post-primary grievances. Fight to win in November or GTFO.
I’ve seen ads about Congresswoman Crockett saying she voted against ICE funding. It was a cluster of banners phrasing that in various ways, including “voted to defund.”
It was from some PAC, American somethingorother, according to its little note in the corners of the banners. It could be interpreted as trying to make her more distasteful to Republican voters, trying to excite Democratic voters, trying to swing people of any or no party away from her (or toward her), or maybe trying to do more than one of those things at the same time. I ended up coming down on the “don’t threaten me with a good time” side, but was left wondering about the strategy.
Weren’t some of the GOPers recently demanding closed primaries to prevent Dems from crossing over? GOP hypocrisy is as dependable as the sun rising in the east.
Also there’s much less incentive for Dems to do that, given that most of the races now have Dems running, and it’s harder to pick “less crazy” on a GOP primary ballot.
If Republicans would rather face Crockett, why is Impeached and Criminally Indicted Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filing with SCOTX to keep the Dallas polls from being kept open later?
That’s one way to taint the eventual winner’s victory.
Talarico ran a racist campaign. He better start mending fences fast.