The Lite Guv runoff is the highest profile statewide race on the ballot in May for Democrats.
After busting through turnout expectations for the party primaries, can Texas Democrats keep up that momentum for May’s runoff elections? Beyond that, will voters turn that attention and enthusiasm to races they hadn’t been following before?
State Rep. Vikki Goodwin and labor organizer Marcos Vélez, the Democratic candidates vying to challenge incumbent Republican Lt. Gov Dan Patrick, certainly hope so. The pair face off in a May 26 runoff to decide who will be the party’s nominee for lieutenant governor this November.
For the primaries, many of the state’s Democrats came to the polls focused on one race: The closely watched U.S. Senate primary between U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico.
“What I found as I was standing at the polls is that a lot of people came knowing about who was in that race, but not necessarily knowing a lot of the other candidates,” said Goodwin, a four-term Texas House member from Travis County. “Including mine.”
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That brings us back to the big question for Texas Democrats looking to May’s runoffs: Will voters show up without a high profile race — and names — on the ballot like Crockett and Talarico?
While the party’s statewide runoffs are for important roles, Texas Lieutenant Governor included, there just isn’t the same star-power helping to turn out the vote.
For Goodwin’s part, she may have served four terms in the statehouse, but she has little name recognition outside her Travis County Texas House district. Goodwin’s most recent campaign finance report shows she has around $160,000 in cash on hand. That puts her at a significant disadvantage against Patrick in November, but at an advantage over her opponent.
Vélez, who’s running as the union-friendly candidate, has significantly less in his campaign war chest. Many observers of Texas politics expected Goodwin to win the nomination outright. But the Houston-area candidate snagged the endorsement of the Texas AFL-CIO, something he credits with drawing more votes his way during the Democratic primary.
Additionally, Vélez has said being the “lowest net worth candidate on the ballot” is something he thinks aligns him with voters. He reiterated that statement on a call with reporters once it was clear he was heading for the runoffs.
“When I talk about the experience on the campaign trail, I understand their struggles because I’ve lived them,” he said. “I think that’s what resonates most with working people.”
Vélez believes that is what will set him apart for voters ahead of May’s runoff, while Goodwin believes her years of legislative experience gives her an advantage.
“I think we need somebody stepping into the role of lieutenant governor who understands the legislature, who knows what it takes to get bills passed,” Goodwin told The Texas Newsroom. “Who knows the people that will be there in the Senate and in the House so that we can work together well.”
She added Vélez would need, “on-the-job training if elected,” something she thinks would make it difficult to lead the Texas Senate.
You can be certain that Republicans will have higher turnout in the runoff than Democrats will, because the Republican Senate runoff will be driving the turnout. We have that Republican Senate runoff because nobody dropped out after Trump chickened out on endorsing anyone. The Republican AG race will also drive turnout a bit, but the Senate race will be the big dog. Runoffs are very specific to what races they feature, so there’s no real point in speculating about what it will look like. There will be more Republican voters in May because the highest profile and most expensive race is on the Republican side.
As this story notes, Dems also have a runoff for AG, while Republicans also have a runoff for Railroad Commissioner.
Republicans also have more Congressional runoffs that will be in districts they will or will be favored to win: CDs 09, 19, 35, and 38, plus a couple in blue districts. (They were going to have a runoff in CD32 but one of the candidates withdrew before the deadline.) Dems have CDs 18, 24, 33, and 35, plus a few in redder districts. Again, the factors favor the GOP for more voters showing up.
In Harris County, both parties have runoffs for County Judge. Democrats also have a runoff for County Judge in Fort Bend. That and CD18 will push some turnout for Dems in both counties, with CDs 09 and 38 doing the same for Republicans. I expect Republicans to have the higher runoff turnout here too, for the same reason as they’ll have higher turnout statewide.
I’ve been busy with interviews for the runoffs lately:
Ron Angeletti – SD04 (special election)
Rep. Vikki Goodwin – Lt Governor
Marcos Vélez – Lt Governor (done for the primary)
Darrell Jordan – Harris County District Clerk
Here are the interviews I did for the Harris County Judge candidates from the primary:
Annise Parker – Harris County Judge
Letitia Plummer – Harris County Judge
I will have Alex Maldonado for tomorrow, and I expect to have both CD18 candidates lined up for publication in May. If there’s a pair of runoff candidates from another race you think I should try to reach, let me know.