Katy Padilla Stout
When Katy Padilla Stout first announced a bid for Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, neither the former teacher — nor the Republican-held seat — were on many Democrats’ radar.
But now that the Republican incumbent has dropped out of the race amid a scandal, and a hardline gun activist YouTuber with a history of edgy, controversial comments has taken his place as the GOP nominee, Padilla Stout’s phone has started ringing more — with both Texans and Washingtonians on the other end — since she won last week’s Democratic primary.
Padilla Stout, a San Antonio attorney, was not recruited by Democratic groups in D.C. to run for the district. But Democrats are increasingly enthused by her candidacy and a convergence of circumstances they believe gives them a chance to win the sprawling border district for the first time since 2012.
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Padilla Stout said her concerns about both candidates led her to get into the race.
“I decided to run because I thought that this seat was one that was winnable for Democrats, given Tony Gonzales’ scandal that we all knew about in September,” Padilla Stout said in an interview. “I didn’t feel someone like that could accurately represent me and my family.”
Then, Padilla Stout continued, when she saw Herrera was the alternative option, “I decided I just couldn’t allow him to represent my children, or our values, or the people of TX-23.”
President Donald Trump won the seat by 15 percentage points, similar to his margin in South Texas’ 15th Congressional District. But while national Democrats put the 15th District on the party’s target list and recruited Tejano musician Bobby Pulido to run there, the 23rd District initially attracted none of the same interest.
But Democrats now see encouraging signs across the district. More Democrats voted in last week’s primary than Republicans. A majority of the district’s eligible voters are Hispanic, in a cycle in which polls, special elections and primary turnout all suggest Latinos have swung back toward Democrats. And both Gonzales’ scandal and the subsequent ascension of Herrera give Democrats hope that Padilla Stout can attract moderate voters.
Already, Democratic groups have been blasting out controversial clips from Herrera’s YouTube channel, including footage of him referring to a gun as the “original ghetto blaster”, making Holocaust jokes, simulating the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. and discussing owning a copy of “Mein Kampf.”
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In 2024, had the district existed in its post-redistricting form, Trump would have won it by a 15-point margin, while Sen. Ted Cruz would have carried it by 8. Historically, it has been represented by moderates — owing to its former status as a swing district.
In the late 2000s and 2010s, the district changed hands in four successive elections, alternating between Democrats and Republicans. Former Rep. Will Hurd, a moderate Republican and Trump critic, won in 2014, and Republicans have held the district ever since, thanks in part to a 2021 round of redistricting that made the seat more favorable for the GOP.
Since he first won the district in 2020, Gonzales has also benefited from the rightward shift of Latino voters, particularly in the district’s border counties. In 2024, he won the general election by a margin of about 24 points.
That year, Gonzales captured all but two of the district’s counties — Presidio and Zavala — underscoring the difficulty for a Democrat in turning the tide. Even in Democratic precincts in Bexar County, Gonzales ran ahead of Cruz and Trump, contributing to his large margin.
But for the first time in over a decade, the Republican nominee is not a moderate.
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Polling by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, conducted on behalf of House Majority PAC and shared with The Texas Tribune, underscored Democratic optimism. In a sample of 521 voters, which favored Trump voters by 12 points, Herrera led Padilla Stout by a narrow margin, 42% to 40%. The poll was conducted over Tuesday and Wednesday.
Padilla Stout is banking her campaign on winning over moderates who might feel turned off by Herrera’s brash conservatism. At the same time, she acknowledged she’s a “tad bit more progressive” than Democrats who previously represented the district, saying “times are more progressive” than when those members served in Congress.
The attorney said she has already received outreach from Republicans validating her theory.
“We’ve actually been flooded with a lot of emails on our campaign site from Republicans, essentially saying that ‘I’ve been Republican my entire life. I’ve never voted for a Democrat. I don’t know this woman. She seems like a decent person, and he does not seem like a decent person. And if my party is not going to put up candidates that are decent, then I guess I’m helping you,’” Padilla Stout said.
See here for some background. Let’s talk about the poll numbers for a second, because they are eye-popping. Standard disclaimers – this is one result, sponsored by a Democratic PAC that could have buried the result if it was unfavorable, and CD23 was basically not affected by the re-redistricting, in case anyone was wondering – but we do have some context from statewide polls. If it really is true that James Talarico has even a tiny lead statewide, then it is also true that CD23 will be closer to even than it was in 2024 when Trump and Gonzales won it easily. I talked about this a lot in 2018 when we were seeing poll after poll showing close races in a bunch of Republican-held Congressional districts that had gone for Trump by double digits in 2016, that there was a correlation between those districts and the Beto-Cruz race. The same is true now: If the Senate race is close, then CD23 will at least be closer than it was in 2024, and if CD23 is close, then James Talarico is in better position than Colin Allred was in 2024.
Indeed, we get a peek at that in the full poll results here: In CD23, this poll found Talarico leading Cornyn 48-42 and Paxton 49-44, while Gina Hinojosa was tied with Greg Abbott 48-48. This is just for CD23, but it’s still something – Abbott won CD23 54.4 – 44.1 in 2022, so again, the data points in one direction. If CD23 is close, or even just sufficiently closer, the Governor’s race is, too. As I said before, I do expect Texas to be polled a lot more regularly this year, and I hope we get more Congressional district polling as well, because those data points matter.
As to whether Herrera being a barking lunatic matters electorally, in most years my answer would be no, not much, at least not in a fairly safe district. He might turn off a few people at the edges, but not enough to matter. In a year like this, when race is likely to be at least competitive, it matters more. Maybe his edgelord wannabe persona is more offputting to habitual but less ideological Republicans in a year when people are stressed about inflation and ICE raids and whatever the hell is happening in Iran. Maybe those nominal Republicans are finally a little tired of unserious cosplayers and are more open to candidates who are basically normal people. And maybe all of this is wishcasting. Katy Padilla Stout has her own role to play, by being a good candidate who campaigns vigorously and stays authentic. The burden is bigger on her because she’s the underdog, but it’s not overwhelming.
I spend a lot of time thinking about how 2018 compares to 2026, for all the obvious reasons. In some key ways it’s better for Dems – Trump’s polling is worse and likely to keep going downwards, Greg Abbott’s polling is also worse, and we have clear evidence of high engagement on the Dem side from the primary, which was not the case in 2018. The main way in which it’s not better is that in 2018 there were already a half dozen or so Congressional races, with compelling candidates who were going gonzo at fundraising, generating a ton of attention. So far this year it’s mostly been CD15, with CD23 just now popping up on the radar. A strong Q2 fundraising haul for Katy Padilla Stout would help with that, but I’m not sure anywhere or anyone else is on the horizon. Given how this was supposed to be the cycle in which Republicans drew themselves five more seats, I guess I can’t complain too much. But if I’m going to make wishes, I will wish for more charismatic Congressional candidates and the attention they can draw for their races. Here’s hoping CD23 leads the way on that. TPR has more.
(By the way, Bobby Pulido is killing it in CD15. What a gift.)
“My opponent says I only belong at quinceañeras. Don’t threaten me with a good time!” Pulido said.
Even Donny2Scoops couldn’t have stuck his foot further into his mouth.