Not the sort of thing our boy Danno usually says.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick on Wednesday said Texas Republicans are “going to have a tough time” holding onto their majority in the state House this fall, the latest and perhaps most notable sign yet of GOP unease about the midterm elections.
Speaking at the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s annual conference in Austin, Patrick said it is imperative for the loser of Republicans’ rancorous Senate primary runoff — whether it’s U.S. Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton — to support the winner against Democratic candidate James Talarico. The Austin state representative locked up his party’s nomination in March and will face whoever emerges from the May 26 GOP election, which has already seen both candidates resume their mudslinging after a vicious first round.
Without a unifying endorsement from the runoff loser, Patrick cautioned, Republicans could lose the Senate seat, an outcome he said would guarantee Democratic control of the upper chamber in Washington. A divided GOP also could imperil down-ballot candidates, he added, pointing to the 2018 midterms when U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly defeated former El Paso congressman Beto O’Rourke and a recent special election for a ruby red Texas Senate seat won by a Democrat in a district President Donald Trump had carried by 17 points in 2024.
“Get over it and come together as one,” Patrick said, aiming his comments at Cornyn and Paxton. “We’re going to have a tough time holding the Texas House.”
[…]
House Speaker Dustin Burrows, R-Lubbock, responded to Patrick’s remark on social media without mentioning his counterpart by name.
“We will not lose the Texas House. We will fight to retain every Republican seat,” Burrows said. “I look forward to the fall campaign where we get to talk about Texas’ prosperity under Republican leadership; and, I trust the voters of Texas to continue to vote for conservative government up and down the ballot!”
State Rep. Christina Morales of Houston, who chairs House Democrats’ campaign arm, said Patrick’s warning was well founded and pointed to factors like high everyday costs, Republicans’ school voucher program and federal deportation efforts.
“Dan Patrick is telling Republicans they’re in trouble in November, and for once, he’s telling the truth,” Morales said in a statement. “We have never been closer and we are not slowing down.”
Do keep in mind the audience Patrick was speaking to. The implicit message here is “and so you rich MFers better dig deep and throw a lot of money at us, or else”. I’m not saying that Patrick doesn’t believe Republicans are in for a rough year – he clearly does. It’s just that Republicans like him tend to have an “a lion does not concern himself about sheep” attitude when it comes to the Democrats as a whole. They’ll sound alarms about specific Democrats, like Beto and now Talarico, who are raising a bunch of money – again, that angle is paramount – but this kind of talk is extremely rare. I can’t remember the last example offhand.
Again, this is a mix of posturing and worry, I’m just not sure how much of each. Patrick didn’t like seeing Sen. Taylor Rehmet win that special election, and I’m sure he doesn’t like all the chatter from national Republicans, because he knows the overall environment will have an effect here. He’s also sending a message to his colleagues. He can’t get Cornyn and Paxton to knock it off, but he can try to get Abbott and Paxton, and Paxton and Kelly Hancock to maybe reel it in a bit.
Anyway. I don’t want to add to poor Danny’s anxiety, but you might want to check out this map by G. Elliott Morris, in which he breaks down Trump’s approval ratings not just by state, but by Congressional district and Census Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA) — a geographic division of roughly 100,000 adults. Zoom in and roam around Texas, it’s quite illuminating. He also has a more recent offering that shows how Trump is underwater in 135 GOP-held Congressional districts plus Trump-won states. On the first page of the chart, at -12 or worse, there are six Texas CDs plus the state itself. Have a look, and imagine how nervous all this would make Dan Patrick.